Thursday, January 21, 2016

Winter Storm Update.

12:15PM Thursday Update....  Nothing much has changed at all.  I still think the worst of this will be over portions of central, eastern, and northeastern Arkansas.

I expect rain to change to sleet/freezing rain, then to snow.  The amount of sleet may cut into snow totals.  Regardless, travel will be messy.

Winds will also become very strong as this system wraps up tonight and that raises the concern for power outages.  The most likely area for this will be eastern Arkansas.

It's completely possible to have thundersleet and thundersnow.  Where convection and banding occurs, higher snow and sleet amounts will be likely.  It's extremely difficult to pinpoint where that will happen, but the most likely area will be eastern Arkansas.

I want to quote Meteorologist Ryan Vaughan at our sister station in Jonesboro.  This really sums up what we're dealing with.  NO snow/ice forecast will be perfect.

"This is like predicting what a bull will do when it comes into the arena. We know it is coming in... but what it does when it gets here is questionable! Giddy up!"

Below are maps from the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) off of WeatherBell.com.  This will not be perfect, but it goes over timing.

To summarize.


  • The worst will move in tonight and early Friday morning
  • Rain will change to sleet/freezing rain then to snow
  • Highest amounts likely on the eastern side of the metro into eastern Arkansas
  • Winds will be very strong and power outages will be possible, especially east
  • Roads will become slick and hazardous
  • Many schools will likely close Friday.
GREEN = RAIN
PURPLE = SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
BLUE = SNOW


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Midnight

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Misty sleet velvet ridge. Can feel on face and hear

Eva Jacobs said...

Hey Todd, you guys sometimes call Desha county Eastern and Southeast, which is it. I have plans for Saturday and wish to know if the roads will be bad then. Thanks for all you do.

Unknown said...

Thanks Todd I really like this hr by hr hrr please update it when also I've noticed that it seems that the storm is a Lil starved for moisture or energy from Lil rock on north is the upper level low that is to our north west going to b on schedule or wat

6 inches in vilonia said...

6 inches in vilonia arkansas thanks - Todd hooah

Unknown said...

I live in St. FRANCIS COUNTY IN WHEATLEY AND WE GOT MAINLY FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND A SMALL DUSTING OF SNOW. WE WERE UNDER THE IMPRESSION WE WERE GET BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW. BOY WERE THEY DISAPPOINTED BUT HAPPY AT THE SAME TIME WITH NO SCHOOL TODAY!!