Thursday, January 21, 2016

Oh Snow!

You know I always say things can always change and beginning last night, they really did!  The early Wednesday models converged on the idea eastern and southeastern Arkansas would get the highest snow amounts.  Last night, the NAM led the way with the change.  The upper low was more intense and a bit further to the northwest.  This shifts the axis of the heaviest snow westward.  The GFS followed, but the amounts were not as much, but still significant.  The Euro is showing a track a bit further to the south and east.  So once again, this is STILL a situation that can change.  With that said, it's looking favorable for significant snow for much of the Channel 7 viewing area.  I think 2-6'' will be very possible for much of central, northeast, and eastern Arkansas.  Higher amounts will be possible where banding and convection can enhance snow rates.  Yes, there might be thundersnow.

Here's one more concern I have.  The models have been nothing short of horrible with temperatures and that's always expected in arctic air situations.  How much above freezing, if any, do we get today?  There's a whole new round of moisture coming in during the day and there's the potential for some of this to be ice, especially across northern Arkansas.  I talked about this in a blog post a couple days ago.  I mentioned it would be possible for some locations to stay mostly with frozen precip.  Again, that most favored area is northern Arkansas, but the southern extent is in question.

Once the surface low passes and the upper level low comes into play, there will be a transition to all snow from west to east this evening.  Again, that snow may be heavy in some locations where the deformation zone sets up.  This is located north and west of the upper level low.  Exactly where this sets up is very difficult to predict, but it should be somewhere around central to eastern and northeastern Arkansas.

The following maps are the GFS from

Green = rain
purple = freezing rain
peach = sleet
blue = snow

Red line is the 32 degree line
Blue line is the 35 degree line
Black solid lines are isobars (Lines of equal barometric pressure)

6AM to NOON Thursday

Noon To 6PM Thursday

6PM Thursday to midnight Friday morning

Midnight to 6AM Thursday

6AM to Noon Friday

Noon to 6PM Friday

The GFS run from last night

The overnight run of the NAM

The Channel 7 forecast as of this Thursday morning

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