Why do I bring this up? This type of reporting only feeds the perception weather guys are always wrong. After big tornado outbreaks, how many times have you heard news anchors, mostly national media, say it hit without warning? I'll never forget Diane Sawyer saying that after a round of January tornadoes a few years ago. The fact of the matter was they were forecast many days in advance.
Yes, I have gotten forecasts wrong and I learn from those mistakes. No one is perfect, but I think we do a heck of a good job as technology continues to evolve and makes forecasting better.
Ok, now let's focus on the weather forecast and the next 2 rounds of wintry weather.
If you have read my blog posts over the past several years, you know I always say arctic air is dense and difficult to dislodge. It's like trying to move a brick with the force of the water from your garden hose. As a new disturbance arrives late Tuesday, I think the northern 1/3 of the state may have a round of sleet and freezing rain. Some snow may fly close to the Missouri border for awhile. I do not expect huge amounts, but it will be enough to impact travel. Winter weather advisories will likely be issued in my opinion.
The next system arrives Thursday and that's the stronger of the two. This will bring a good chance for rain and as it departs and cold air moves in along the back side, I expect the rain to change to snow. Don't hang your hat on every model run that comes out. I really think we have a good chance for accumulating snows over northern and MAYBE central Arkansas.
One other item of interest. The Climate Prediction Center continues to use the red paint bomb all over the United States in their 8-14 day outlook. It seems they religiously follow the GFS which is usually not all that reliable in that time frame. I'm a little baffled by their decision to continue that today (Monday) after I looked at the GFS ensemble forecast. I realize some places may go above average, but I think they are overdoing this! I'll have maps below.
|Even the GFS, which they tend to really like, shows average to below average temperatures in that time period over the central U.S. directly where they think the highest chance exists for above average temperatures. We'll see.|