Now onto the comment section. I mentioned below some of the data points to the precip staying frozen for portions of northern Arkansas most of Thursday with the next system . Here's the data showing that. Not saying that's what will happen, but some of the models indicate it.
Well the chorus of voices has already changed from "where's winter" to "I want the warm weather back". LOL. I told you to be careful with what you asked for!
We have only had one minor event so far, but there's at least two more on the table. I'll address the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning system first.
I was taught to always look at the data and ask, what could go wrong with your forecast? In my opinion, where does the freezing line end up is a key question. Remember, arctic air is dense and does not move easily. I'm writing this early Tuesday afternoon and the temperature in west Little Rock is only 35 degrees with a dew point of 12 degrees. There's plenty of room to drop. The European model takes that freezing line a little further south tonight and that's my concern. The models are not doing a great job with the cold air and that's to be expected. By far, the best chance for sleet and freezing rain will be northern Arkansas and the cold air will be deep enough close to the Missouri border for mostly snow. Also, very important, amounts will not be heavy. That's why a winter weather advisory is in effect instead of a winter storm watch/warning. But we all know it does not take much ice to cause problems on the roads. As far as the biggest impacts are concerned, I think that's roads and school closings. I'm not too worried about power outages at all.
At this time, I think the freezing line (32 degrees) may be a little further south than what most models are predicting. This may put portions of central Arkansas in the winter weather advisory. We'll see how that plays out. Southern Arkansas, just plain rain.
Now onto the next system Thursday. There's a good chance, the precipitation stays mostly frozen over northern Arkansas for the majority of the event. It's not until the surface low passes, we get air cold enough in central Arkansas for a transition to snow. Accumulations? It's too early to pin point at this time, but I don't think it will be too heavy for central Arkansas, BUT it does have potential to bring enough to satisfy some snow lovers! We're NOT talking about a huge storm here! The favored locations at this time are across northern and eastern Arkansas.
By the way, if you're traveling to the east coast later this week, expect major delays and a major winter storm there.
BELOW IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL. IT IS NOT A FORECAST! THIS IS A TOOL USED TO MAKE OUR FORECAST. IT WILL NOT VERIFY EXACTLY, BUT IT'S GOOD GUIDANCE AND SHOWS OUR CONCERN. I PROMISE YOU, THESE MAPS WILL NOT VERIFY EXACTLY.
Below are model maps from EuroWx.com.
|Snow amounts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be around 1-2 inches close to the Missouri border. This is where the cold air is deep enough to support mostly snow.|
|Now onto round #2. This arrives Thursday with a mix across northern Arkansas and rain across central and south Arkansas.|
|By Thursday night, cold air pours south and a transition may occur to wintry weather across much of the northern 1/2 of the state. Southern Arkansas MIGHT see a LITTLE too.|