Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Severe Weather and Flooding

It's here!  The much talked about storm system will arrive today and it will not leave until Thursday PM.

This video goes over:



Mr. C.A. Hudson said...

Thank you for allowing me to put my opinion on your site. There is another that has been catching my eye all night and into this AM that I thought was significant. The HRRR that you are using at Weatherbell has shown something interesting in several runs in which if it ranks true needs to be mentioned for historical reasons and for scientific reasons as well. The HRRR on runs 7z, 8z, 9z, 10z, and 13z have all had a concentrated Supercell in the soup of storms over Arkansas only this one has been consistent. It appears to come from the Red River, strengthens, then crosses over into either McCurtain County, Oklahoma or Little River County, Arkansas and precedes up to Sevier County, Arkansas. It has the highest Significant Tornado Parameter of any storm (in fact on the 10z run it had a 8.9 while over Sevier County). Personally, my chips are down for somewhere between De Queen to Ashdown to Texarkana to Magnolia having the highest chance of getting the truly strongest tornado of the day. Just a hunch from a SKYWARN trained storm chaser. I stand behind my last statement however and would travel to northern Mississippi tomorrow for the big show of tornadoes if I had the day off tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Would somebody please cover the tornado that hit Dermott, Arkansas last night? People have family down there. They are a part of Arkansas. We need people on the ground covering this news story. Even Jackson Mississippi isn't reporting the damage.

Mr. C.A. Hudson said...

Well isn't this interesting. A tornado warning issued for Lowndes County, Mississippi which includes the city of Columbus. The tornado was just 5 miles south of the city as of 6:20 PM. Seems like I nailed it again per usual. I said on your post from March 28th but I posted on March 30th at 5 AM that a triangle of cities from Columbus to Grenada to Tupelo, Mississippi were in the highest danger from this storm system. Before anyone says it, this was not a guess. Being a highly respected Skywarn storm chaser I studied the models performance closely out west with this storm system then applied my own knowledge of Supercell formation along with information from the Storm Prediction Center and thus I predicted a tornado within 5 miles of a town over 36 hours early. I may not have a meteorological degree but I have a huge amount of common sense and this was by far the easiest to see using the WRF-ARW and the Downscaled Euro which also used the ARW as one of it's core components. If anyone is interested in following quality forecasting for free, check me out on on any of the major social media sites. It's been fun Todd.

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