Monday, March 28, 2016

Wednesday Worries

Worries?   I guess I should become a writer for network news.  How many times have you heard national anchors say, "why you and your family should worry about________"?  It gets old doesn't it and now I use it.  HOWEVER, there's also a chance this severe threat will not be too great!

As with most storm systems, there are always questions that really can't be answered until we get within 12-24 hours of an event and sometimes not until just before storms begin to fire up.  We'll need to watch morning rain and storms.  This would act to limit daytime instability and lessen the severe weather threat.  With that said, if we break out into sunshine, then we all know that adds fuel to the fire and storms can get out of hand.

Beyond this severe weather threat, we'll have ANOTHER chance for a frost/freeze next weekend.  More on that later.

Most of the following maps are from Weatherbell.com

1PM cloud cover indicates there should be quite a bit Wednesday.  This COULD help to limit the instability.

Late Wednesday instability (CAPE) should be highest across western, southern, and portions of central Arkansas.  This is where the SPC has the risk for some severe weather.

1PM temperatures Wednesday.  Look at the pockets of cool over the north and northeast.  Again, that could help lessen the severe weather threat there, but look at the warming south and west early in the afternoon.

Lifted Index (LI) is another parameter we often look at for instability.  The more negative the number is, the more unstable the atmosphere.  The over night run of the GFS points towards eastern OK and southern Arkansas Wednesday afternoon.  Remember, we are 2 days away and much of this can still change.



1 comment:

Mr. C.A. Hudson said...

I have been on quite a few tornado chases and I'm also a North Arkansas SKYWARN certified member and I must say these forecasts the last few days have been quite sad. It is easy for me as I've been doing this for years and I've been quite successful and this year is no different. I mean come on, the SREF model blends have showing southeastern Arkansas getting hit the hardest and that's run 4 times a day and it goes out to 84 hours. The one that gets me though that no one is talking about is how well the WRF-ARW has done much better than the WRF-NMM or the static WRF-NAM 4K itself. Yes, the ARW takes longer to update but it's worth it to be right, much like the Euro. It's obvious, southern and particularly southeastern Arkansas gets the "stronger" tornadoes, central but particularly eastern Arkansas gets the squall line which moves off to the East with a few QLCS "weaker" tornadoes as well. If you've got a day off and have the money and want to storm chase, do yourself a favor and go in the triangle of the Tupelo, Grenada, Columbus, Mississippi area, that's where your tornadoes will be on Thursday guaranteed.