Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Got Rain? Friday Storm System Update.

Several days ago I talked about the chance for rain and a few thunderstorms on Friday November 18th depending on how much moisture and instability would be available.  As discussed, that instability looks insufficient for severe weather at that time, but I would not rule out a strong storm or two.  With drought conditions in place across the south and southeast, these systems seem to have a way of drying out as they approach and this seems to be unfolding that way.  Also, the storm dynamics will shift well north of the state.

As of Tuesday, the data reflects minimal amounts of rainfall.  Since this is still several days away, things can always change.

The GFS has been the most robust with rainfall and instability over the past several days. HOWEVER, with each run of the model, it shows less moisture and barely any instability.  It's looking more and more like the European model which I have below.  With most rainfall amounts only around .25'', that would not help much with drought conditions.
The Euro really does not generate much rainfall until the front moves into far eastern Arkansas.  It shows little if any rainfall west which would be a huge disappointment.

The "Drought Monitor" shows moderate to severe drought conditions across the state with extreme conditions over the southeastern United States.

Wildfire danger is getting out of hand quickly.  Drought conditions have a tendency to feed back and continue with more dry conditions.
Many counties are under a burn ban

Around Noon Friday, you can clearly see the front is bisecting the state with 70s southeast and 50s northwest.

Behind the front will be the coolest air so far this season.  3PM temperatures according to the GFS Saturday will only be in the 40s and 50s statewide.

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