Thursday, November 10, 2016

Watching Next Week (November 17th and 18th)

Anything in the long range is always subject to change, but we have at least 2 computer models showing basically the same thing.  A strong cold front will move into the state Thursday or Friday of next week.  The timing and how much instability will be in place are uncertain, but it's worth bringing awareness to the situation.  We are going into our secondary severe weather season.  Since we have not had much going on weatherwise lately, we need to get everyone paying attention. 

This is a forecast map valid next Thursday, November 17th at 6AM.  With the surface low to the northwest, Arkansas will be in the warm sector.  The question remains timing and just how much moisture returns.  If the timing brings this in at night, severe weather will still be possible, but not as widespread compared to daytime activity.  However, it can still be significant.

The GFS shows instability levels shooting up Friday morning along and ahead of the front with the surface low shoots to the northeast.  Other computer models are not as robust with instability levels.

By displaying this graphic, I'm NOT saying we will have tornadoes. I'm simply showing you the increase in activity on a historical basis this time of year.  Our secondary severe weather season should always be taken seriously.


In summary, it's way too soon to pin down details and specifics.  At this point, it's simply something to watch over the coming days.  When you look at years similar to this in terms of La Nina and other driving factors, an active secondary severe weather season is very possible.

3 comments:

Sean said...

Most of the time I can respect your forecasts but this one is just down right Wishcasting. Severe Thunderstorms next weekend, seriously? The Euro and GFS are both in agreement with the main low and area of energy being in the Dakotas and Minnesota with not a lot of moisture to work with at all and CAPE values not even reaching 1000 j/kg. Besides that, you've got your meteorological degree and have studied Arkansas's climate for years and you know that years similar to this one such as what the National Weather Service has posted on it's website have minimum severe weather. You have the weather app that you sell so you should know that in order for the entire state of Arkansas from strong El Nino to weak La Nina years: November through March tornado counts per secondary season: 1959-1960: 4 tornadoes. 1966-1967: 5 tornadoes. 1983-1984: 8 tornadoes. 1992-1993: 2 tornadoes. In other words, very rare for severe weather outbreaks during this kind of transition. Please don't scare people with non events like the one coming up this weekend because the public will lose their trust in meteorologists and they will ignore you when the true dangerous events will present a clear and present danger. Sean-Benton, AR

Todd Yakoubian said...

Where did I say we WOULD have severe weather? I even say instability and moisture return are questionable. If you're new to the blog, I understand your point of view, but this is what I have done for the past 10 years here.

Take care

Todd Yakoubian said...

One more thought. Outbreak? Where did I use the word "outbreak"? You sited November 1983 in your list of analogues. I'm actually old enough to remember those tornadoes that month and what followed the next month. I guess raising awareness to the secondary severe weather season is something you would NOT do? interesting.