Thursday, June 22, 2017

Cindy... To The Point

*Thursday will not be a wash-out.  

*Expect scattered showers and storms to develop, especially this afternoon 
*There's a very low chance that a storm could produce a brief tornado or two this afternoon and evening across mainly southern Arkansas, but the chance is on the low end.

*Heavy rainfall will be likely tonight into early tomorrow morning for areas south and east of Little Rock

*Gusty winds across southern and eastern Arkansas may cause a few power outages.
*A flash flood watch is in effect for those areas south and east of the metro for 2-4'' of rainfall with locally higher amounts.

*Some areas north and west of the metro will see little if any rainfall 

*Friday should NOT be a wash-out.

*Rain will taper off from west to east during Friday morning

*We'll receive a break in the rain Friday late morning into the afternoon

*A front will move into Arkansas from the north Friday afternoon and evening

*Scattered showers and storms will redevelop later Friday

*Some could be strong to severe, but the chance is low

*MUCH cooler and drier air begins to arrive this weekend.

The following maps are from the 3KM NAM off of  It's simulated radar and it's never perfect, but has a fairly good handle on the situation.

6PM Thursday.  Scattered showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall likely.  There's a low chance of a brief and isolated tornado.
Midnight Friday morning shows the heavy rain in southern Arkansas.

6AM Friday... heavy rainfall over eastern and southern Arkansas.

By noon Friday, the heaviest of the rain is crossing over the Mississippi River.  The chance for rain will decrease and a break is likely.
A new front will run into unstable air by late Friday afternoon into the evening.  This is 6PM.  Scattered showers and storms could be strong.
Flash flood watch east and south of the metro for 2-4'' of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.
Slight risk for severe weather southeastern Arkansas later today. The main threat will be strong winds and a brief tornado or two
Euro rain totals guidance. Heaviest south and east with little north and west.  Notice the strong rainfall total gradient!

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