1. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
2. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL GRADIENT MEANING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY VARY OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
The overall speed of the system may be quicker than first anticipated meaning Friday afternoon COULD turn out to be nice for some! The heaviest of the rainfall should be south and east of the Little Rock metro area with 2-4'' common. There MIGHT be isolated higher amounts.
What about severe weather? That threat will be low, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out Thursday afternoon into the evening, especially over southeastern Arkansas.
The following maps are the 3KM NAM from weatherbell.com. This is future radar and it is NEVER perfect, but this may have a good handle on the situation. Again, look at how some areas get heavy rain, but some may get little if any across western and northern Arkansas.
Also, the last map is the European from EuroWX.com showing total rainfall.
|3PM Thursday. There could be a rain band or two moving through the state. Any storms in these bands could briefly rotate.|
|1AM Friday. Look at that rainfall gradient! Heavy rainfall south and east with little north and west.|
|4AM Friday. Areas south and east of the metro getting heavy rain.|
|By 8AM, the back edge is already leaving!|
|From EuroWx.com. There's a HUGE rainfall gradient. From .25'' in the River Valley to 1-2'' central. Look at eastern and southern Arkansas! 2-4'' look common with isolated higher amounts according to this model.|