Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Cindy Update

The track of Cindy means everything.  It's surrounding the track and areas south and east that stand the highest chance for heavy rainfall and there could be localized flooding.  At this time, it appears 2-4+ inches will be likely with isolated higher amounts.

I also expect a very strong rainfall gradient. This means the rainfall amounts will change greatly over a short distance.  There might be cases where one portion of a county sees more than 2'' and the other end only receives .5''.  At this time it appears that gradient will set up somewhere along the I-30 to highway 67/167 corridor.

There's also the threat for some severe weather Thursday mainly across southeast Arkansas.  Gusty winds and an isolated, brief tornado or two will be possible.

Scattered showers will likely increase Thursday.  The rains around tropical systems typically contract at night and surround the center.  During the day, it expands and affects a larger areas.  Some of the data suggests an area of very heavy rain Thursday night in the Arklatex, then it expands to cover up a much larger area Friday.  That's when the greatest chance for rain will exist.  The system should exit late Friday and that faster movement may help prevent higher amounts.

This is the early morning track from the NHC.  It's surrounding this track and south and east of it that have the highest chance for heavy rainfall.

3AM Friday morning, 1 computer model shows this system entering the Arklatex.  Many times, the rainfall at night contracts around the center and it looks like this model is keying in on that.  Heavy rain possible SW at that time.
Just a few hours later, the rainfall expands and affects more of the state.  Some of it heavy.

The European model continues to show the heaviest across the SE 1/2 of Arkansas.  Notice the rainfall gradient.  North and west of the metro .5'' or LESS while south and east of the metro could see at least 2-4''.

The overnight run of the GFS shows basically the same thing with a very tight rainfall gradient with 2-4'' + across south and east Arkansas.

The NAM also shows that gradient.  Look at Perry and Faulkner counties.  Amounts light there, but heavy near Little Rock to Pine Bluff and Sheridan.

There will be a slight risk for severe weather to the right of the track across southeast Arkansas.
If there are tornadoes, they are usually brief and weak.  This will need to be monitored.

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