Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Where Are The 90s?

You may remember a few days ago here on the blog and last weekend on the air I talked extensively about the lack of 90° heat so far this year.  It's inevitable, but the longer we delay it, the better!

It's very interesting to note we have had 80° temperatures every month this year except January.  Now it seems the brakes have been put on 90°, but that won't last long I'm afraid.

Before I get into the data, ENJOY THE NEXT FEW DAYS!  YOU WILL NOT GET THIS OFTEN IN JUNE AND IT'S VERY RARE IN SUMMER.... COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY!

Beginning this weekend into early next week, ridging will develop over our region and this has the look of a summertime pattern setting in for awhile.  Looking at the data you would think 90° will be easy to hit, but NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS.   While I do believe there's a better than 50/50 chance for 90s, there are a couple things to watch and keep in mind.


  1. There's a lot of soil moisture in place and that can hold down high temperatures a bit until more it gets evaporated.  This really isn't much of an issue when you're talking about hitting 90°, but it is when you're talking about hitting 100°.  But if the models show highs hovering right at 90° with all that moisture, daytime highs may fall a degree or two short.
  2. The models also indicate a very weak upper low near the Gulf Coast next weekend.  This would not be a major feature, but it will tend to increase afternoon showers and storms a little bit.  Instead of the usual 20% chance, it might be 30%.  If outflow or a storm is near the official sensor, that can influence when we have our first 90° day.
These 2 factors seem to be small in the big picture, but I WANT THAT RECORD OF JUNE 20TH, 1910 REACHED!  DON'T YOU?  If we can make it to that day, it will be the latest 90° in Little Rock weather history which dates back to the 1870s.  

2 meter guidance high temperatures from the overnight runs of the GFS and Euro.  I don't buy the mid to upper 90s the GFS shows from the 13th to the 15th.  Remember, these are models and not forecasts. 

The latest 90° heat in Little Rock weather history.


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