Friday, May 25, 2018

ArkanSauna 2018

If the computer models are correct, we'll challenge daily record highs later next week.  Both the GFS and the Euro show an upper level ridge expanding across much of the south central plains into Arkansas.  We'll be on the northeast side of that ridge.  The way it builds in, I expect the hottest temperatures over western and southwestern Arkansas.  The periphery of the ridge may see some shortwave energy and that means northeast Arkansas will not be as hot with a chance for a few showers and storms.  

Once again, according to the newest data, heat index temperatures could easily exceed 100 degrees.  The threshold for a heat advisory is 105 degrees.  I think it's possible for some of you to reach that.  This is a long range forecast and subject to change, but most of the data I have looked at supports this early summer heat wave.

The late Thursday version of the Euro.  It has actual air temperatures well above 100 degrees late next week . While that's possible, I am hesitant.  To reach 100, most of the soil moisture needs to be evaporated.  We could fall just short.  Regardless, heat index temps could exceed 100 easily.

The GFS echos the Euro with high heat later next week.
GFS forecast heat index temps next Friday look brutal.  Notice the NE corner not as bad since they will be on the edge of the upper ridge and may see a few storms.
Drought conditions are expanding and worsening south and west of the state.  It's across these areas which will have a better chance for hitting 100 degrees and higher since soil moisture is depleted. 
The upper ridge by Sunday June 3rd is centered west of the state.  This COULD open the door to a northwesterly wind flow aloft.  This will beat back the heat and allow disturbances to move across the state from the northwest to the southeast.  Scattered storms would be possible at that time. 

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