Thursday, May 24, 2018

Tropics Come To Life. Arkansas Impact?

I have been following the potential for any impact on our weather from a tropical system.  As mentioned in previous posts, whether it gets a name or not is pointless.  The big story with this will be torrential rainfall and even some severe weather in the form of tornadoes.

At this time, I do not think this will have a substantial impact on our weather.  Most of the data I have analyzed insists the bulk of the moisture will stay south and east of the state.  However, I would not be surprised to see some moisture get involved into the pattern and enhance rainfall chances across eastern Arkansas.  

Can this change?  Yes.  If it tracks further to the west, it would place Arkansas more under the influence of this system.  Further east, and we are drier.  If it affects our weather, it will be towards the middle of next week.

The low has yet to enter the Gulf of Mexico as of Thursday morning.  The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance for development over the next 5 days. 
The Euro looks like the NAM and brings the system into the northern Gulf by Monday.  Expect rain to increase along and east of the track.
Euro rainfall amounts heaviest east of the Mississippi River.  If this changes, we'll update you. 

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