Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Flooding Rain??? Then Cold!!!!


QUICK UPDATE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTANT IN STALLING OUT THE FRONT WITH EXTREMELY HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. THE TOP GRAPHIC IS GENERATED BY HPC AND SHOWS 4'' OVER A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS.

THE BOTTOM IS FROM THE 00Z GFS. THIS IMPLIES UP TO 9'' OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

IS IT POSSIBLE, YES!!!! BUT THERE'S ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT DOESN'T STALL AND MOVES THROUGH THE STATE FASTER. I'M NOT SURE I BELIEVE THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES THE ARCTIC AIR NORTHWARD. THERE'S THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT. WE'LL SEE.

AT THIS TIME, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP. FOR ARKANSAS FROM THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.

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