Wednesday, January 24, 2007

The Siberian Express Has Left The Station. Estimated Time Of Arrival...Saturday Night

SOMEBODY HAS OPENED THE GATE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WON'T BE CLOSED FOR AWHILE.

FIRST OFF, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 50'S THURDAY AND FRIDAY. A "CUT-OFF" LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FINALLY GETS A PUSH EAST AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE FIRST BATCH OF COLD AIR, SURGE #1, QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ABOVE IMAGE IS THE EUROPEAN 850 MB/SURFACE FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS THE FIRST SURGE HEADING SOUTH WITHOUT ANY RESISTANCE. BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE, SURGE NUMBER 2 IS ON THE MAP HEADING SOUTH FOR LATE MONDAY. A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE PERFECTLY POSITIONED WEST OF US TO CONTINUE DRAINING THE ARCTIC REGIONS OF VERY, VERY COLD AIR. THIS PATTERN CAN GET STUCK FOR SEVERAL DAYS MAYBE A WEEK OR TWO.

WHAT ABOUT TEMPERATURES? TWO THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN FORECASTING THIS NEW AIR MASS CHANGE. FIRST, THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE COLD AIR UNTIL IT'S ON THE PLAYING FIELD, AND EVEN THEN, IT CAN DO A LOUSY JOB. SECOND, THE SNOW AND ICE PACK IS SIGNIFICANT FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR CHILLED AS IT HEADS SOUTH. THE LATEST NUMBERS FROM THE GFS HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 40'S BEGINNING SUNDAY. IN MY OPINION... TOO WARM. I LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30'S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20'S. AS MORE FRONTS COME THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR EVEN COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE.

BOTTOM LINE, THE LAST HALF OF WINTER WILL BE THE PART ALL OF US REMEMBER AS VERY COLD.

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