Monday, April 25, 2016

Wednesday Trouble + Next Weekend

Exactly how the threat for severe weather unfolds mid-week is still not entirely clear, but it is coming more into focus.  I'm becoming increasingly concerned about what may follow by the end of the week into next weekend.  Clearly, next weekend will be nowhere as nice as this past one.  Not only is there a severe weather component to the storm system next weekend, but there's also a flash flooding threat.

A big severe weather outbreak will unfold over Oklahoma and points north Wednesday.  These storms will push into western Arkansas late Tuesday and into the very early morning hours on Wednesday.  This is NOT coming in at peak heating.  Despite that, some will be severe with hail and wind the main threats.  Could there be a tornado?  Yes!  As the area of storms pushes further into the state, there should be tendency for these to lose some strength.

I will have more on the blog later.   Very sorry I have not been blogging as much as I would like to.  This nice April weather has given me the opportunity to get a lot done around the house and spend some wonderful time with my family.  It appears I'll be paying for this break over the next 7-10 days at least with very active weather!

Some of the following maps are from

A significant severe weather outbreak will unfold Tuesday afternoon and evening over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.  As the evening progresses, these storms will move into western Arkansas towards midnight.  A few will be strong to severe with hail and wind the main threat.  Yes, there is a small tornado threat with these storms.  As we go deeper into the night, these storms should show a tendency to weaken.

By 7AM Wednesday, strong storms will be crossing the state with heavy rainfall.  Since this is NOT coming in during peak heating, the severe threat will not be as great, BUT it is there.
Most of the state has a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday.  Even though western AR is not highlighted on this graphic, there will be the threat Tuesday night into Wednesday morning there.  The main risk over the rest of the state will be high winds and hail.  The tornado threat is there, but not as great.

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