It's a day we will never forget and it's one we hope future generations will always remember. We lost 16 of our fellow Arkansans to one of the strongest tornadoes ever to hit the state. We remember this day for the obvious reasons, but from a meteorological perspective I want to focus on the fact that it "ONLY TAKES ONE." It only takes one storm and it only takes one tornado to wipe out communities, destroy lives, and destroy property.
It was an extremely quiet severe weather season with only 1 tornado in 2014 prior to April 27th. As a matter of fact, we had more tornadoes the first 2 weeks in October of 2014 than we did the entire spring of 2014.
The ingredients were there for a massive outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes that day. Many tornado warnings were issued across much of Arkansas and the highest level of severe weather risk was put in place by the meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
But by the end of the day, there was only 1 storm which produced tornadoes in Arkansas. The same supercell thunderstorm put down its first tornado near the Saline/Pulaski county line and tracked on the ground for almost 40 miles. It then lifted off the ground and would touch down again 4 more times.
In the calm and quiet studio at Channel 7, we were looking at a horrific signiture on radar, a huge debris ball. While it was peaceful in the weather center, Ned, Barry, and I knew it was hell on the ground and lives were being lost. There was nothing anyone could do and all we could do was urge everyone to take cover. With each radar scan, there was hope it would go away, but it only got stronger.
We quickly began to realize it was happening all over again. The tornado was on the same track as the one which hit Vilonia almost exactly 3 years prior.
That night, I was extremely proud of everyone at Channel 7. Both those behind and in front of the camera put together incredible coverage. I'm even more proud of the way Arkansans responded to the disaster. Within 3 hours of the first tornado warning, we launched the "Spirit of Arkansas Tornado Relief Drive" to help the Arkansas Red Cross respond. Because of you, we were able to give victims almost 250 thousand dollars in relief assistance.
Recently, I was asked give a presentation at the National Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference in Des Moines, Iowa. Below is a recorded version of that presentation PLUS some of our coverage that night on Channel 7. Also below are radar images from that storm. The National Weather Service in North Little Rock plotted all the survey information along the track and you can check that out on the map too.
12:25 PM Friday Update... Clouds and rain will help keep instability values in check today, but it's southern Arkansas where we need to watch. While the worst of the thunderstorm activity may end up being over Texas and Louisiana, a few strong to severe storms will move into southern Arkansas and the main threat will be high winds. A tornado can't be ruled out across that area as well. Further north, it's heavy rainfall which will end up being a bigger threat. I'm keeping an eye on the situation for you.
Severe risk today is slight for much of the southwestern half of the state with an "enhanced" risk further south.
The tornado threat is elevated further south as well with small chances north. This is where more of the surface based instability may develop.
Severe hail will be possible as well.
High winds will be a threat too, especially over far southern Arkansas.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) shows between 1-3 inches of rainfall will be possible across much of central and southern Arkansas through 1AM Saturday. While this may not cause significant flooding, watch for rising water in low lying areas.
Hope for clouds and rain today because if the sun comes out, that's a very bad thing. The more sunshine we receive, the more the atmosphere will destabilize. At this time, it appears the worst storms will track through southern Arkansas. The potential for severe winds (58 mph or greater) is elevated. It might be a good idea to have your cell phones charged and a flashlight ready to go. There's also a chance for tornadoes, especially across the far south.
This video goes into timing and specific threats for specific locations.
Much of the state has a slight risk for severe weather and there's even an "enhanced" risk over southern Arkansas. Instability values are forecast to increase rapidly across the southern half of the state. This will lead to thunderstorm development with wind and hail the main threats. As always, there's the potential for tornadoes, but at this time, it looks low. The worst of the activity will arrive late in the afternoon into the evening
While this will likely not be an outbreak, some strong to severe thunderstorm activity will be possible later this afternoon and evening (Sunday, April 19th, 2015).
I have discovered a new product in our upgraded weather equipment and I'm going to test it out. It's called the "Power Outage Index". PLEASE, do not take it literally. I have no idea at this time exactly how it is formulated, but we'll see if it's worth using again.
This video goes over the severe threats and exact timing.
Thanks for trusting the Channel 7 weather team and thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog
Did I talk too soon? A few days ago, it looked like the chance for any organized, widespread severe weather was shut down for awhile. While I don't expect this to be widespread, we will have a few hours late Sunday afternoon and early evening we need to watch for strong to severe thunderstorms. This looks more "linear". With a line of storms, the tornado threat is there, but it's low. The main threat will be wind and hail with the line.
This is the transition to a much cooler weather pattern. At this time, I have highs Monday and Tuesday at 70 degrees with lows in the 40s and 50s. It would not surprise me to have highs only in the 60s. NOAA released their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook and it has temperatures below average and precipitation above average.
The model maps below are from WeatherBell Analytics.
The timing of this will not be perfect, but this is what we're expecting at this point. Remember, as this evolves, things can change. Look for a line of storms to develop late Sunday afternoon and evening. This is simulated radar at 7PM Sunday.
This is CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) Sunday at 7PM. This is the instability, the fuel for thunderstorms. The levels are above 3000 for some locations which is plenty for strong to severe weather.
By 10PM, the line is past the metro and moving into south central and east central Arkansas.
By 1AM Monday, the line is across southeast Arkansas and getting ready to cross the Mississippi River.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Arkansas in an area with the greatest threat for severe weather. This is all late Sunday with the line we're expecting to develop.
We'll have a medium threat for wind and hail, which is typical with a line of storms. The tornado threat is there, but is low. This is still subject to change.
The NOAA 6-10 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures.
It doesn't change in the 8-14 day outlook. The average high is well into the 70s, but should be below average for awhile.
And that's a very, very good thing! You can NEVER rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm this time of year, but widespread severe weather does not look likely over the next couple weeks for our portion of the country. That takes us into the end of April. Once we get towards mid to late May, our primary severe weather season begins to fade away. I do not think we'll escape this spring, but I hope we keep the activity to a minimum.
The bigger weather story this week will be the periods of rainfall we're expecting, then the big weather story will turn to well below average temperatures.
We'll have rain increase today (Monday), then the showers will become more scattered Tuesday and Wednesday. The chance for rain may increase again by the end of the week as a new storm system approaches. The exact timing and location will be difficult to pin down this far in advance, but it does look unsettled. Again, the chance for severe weather is there, but it looks very low for awhile.
As we go into next week, the pattern really begins to amplify. That means the jet stream will have substantial troughs and ridges. One of those ridges will go up over western Canada with a downstream trough. You know what that means? That ridge will deliver a surge of cold air to the south and temperatures may go well below average next week.
5 day rainfall totals will be significant. Since this is spread out over the entire week, flooding concerns are not too high at this time. However, you see how active the weather will become.
By next Tuesday, April 21st, you can see the ridge poking up into western Canada and a strong trough developing over the central United States. This will put a big dent in any widespread severe weather chances and keep it cooler than average.
NOAA's 8-14 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures. Notice where the above average temperatures will be located... underneath that ridge!
I really have no changes to what we have been saying over the past several days. This video goes over specific timing and specific threats.
We're in what we call "Storm Mode" at Channel 7. That means everything we do at the station is about the weather. We're here to keep you and your family safe. I hope we don't have to break into programming, but if we do, it's because there is that threat.
A typical spring storm will affect the state Thursday, especially late in the day with a round of strong to severe thunderstorms. I expect storms to develop this Wednesday afternoon over Oklahoma and Kansas. Some of this will drift into Arkansas along with cloud cover tonight. It will likely NOT be severe at that time. This will create a canopy of cloud cover in the morning for some sections of the state. If the clouds break, we'll really have a chance to destabilize during the afternoon as the front makes slow progress into the state. We'll likely see a line of storms develop and push through the state late Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threats will be wind and hail, but we can't rule out an isolated tornado.
This video goes over specifics PLUS a new addition to the Arkansas Weather Blog.
It's something I talked about this weekend on the air. The threat for severe weather is there Thursday. I see this as a typical round of spring storms coming through the state and that does mean the threat for wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes. There are still a few uncertainties on how this exactly unfolds. For instance, how much cloud cover will we have throughout the day? That COULD limit instability. If we break out into sunshine, that's not good as it destabilizes the atmosphere.
Also, the track of the storm will be well north of the state. Around here, we'll have to watch for areas where surface winds "back". That simply means they come out of the southeast while winds aloft change with height to the southwest. This can enhance a tornado threat over a particular area. All in all, at this time, I do not expect a huge outbreak. Remember, it's only Tuesday and things can always change.
One other threat will be heavy rainfall. Some of these storms could easily drop 1-2 inches of rain in a short amount of time. The ground is still saturated and this could cause isolated flooding.
I think most of the activity will move east of the Mississippi River early Friday morning allowing cooler and drier air to move into the state.
The model maps below are courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a "slight" risk for severe weather.
This will not be perfect whatsoever, but the NAM does indicate areas of showers and storms around 4PM Thursday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary.
More showers and storms will be possible with the actual front Friday morning between midnight and 3AM.
As a percentage of average, rainfall has been well above over the past 30 days across southwest, central, and northern Arkansas. There are a few areas lacking rainfall and that's easily seen over far northwest Arkansas and east central areas.
I had the honor of presenting at the National Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference in Des Moines, Iowa on Friday March 27th.
Below are two videos. The first is a recorded version of the same presentation I gave at the conference and the other is a condensed video of our television coverage that night last April 27th.
The presentation goes over the set-up, the use of social media, how we cover severe weather at Channel 7, and how the event unfolded.
