Thursday, March 28, 2013
No April Fools Joke. More Winter To Open April
After milder temperatures and several rounds of rain, another very strong cold front will drop temperatures to near record levels for the very first few days of April This video goes in depth into what to expect. Hold on, it's going to be one of those weather weeks that has you shaking your head and you think, "Never Say Never To Arkansas Weather".
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Winter Rolls into April
This will be a quick blog post with more to come later. This March is breaking records all over the state and even all over the country. While I think we have at least a solid two weeks until REAL spring gets here, there's more very interesting weather next week. In summary, we're not done with the cold yet. I'll have more about the how cold it has been in a historical perspective, but it's becoming clear this will go down as the coldest March in decades for several locations around the state. The good news, this keeps severe weather very limited, but I'm sure it will come roaring back at some point. Hopefully though this will shorten the severe weather season around here!
In the previous blog post I mentioned the sudden rise in the AO and research that has correlated that to heavy rain and/or severe weather events around here. At the time of writing that post, it looked like a sizable chunk of energy would roll off the Pacific and form a large storm system this weekend, but now all the models hold that energy well to the west. So the severe threat is lessened and this will be more of a rain event and it would not surprise me to see at least a couple inches of rain. The northern branch of the jet will deliver another shot of cold air next week, then that energy hanging out west may come in and interact with it. And yes, it would not surprise me if someone in Arkansas had some sort of wintry weather next week. We'll see how that plays out. Again more coming later, but here are a few maps about this weekend and next week.
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| This is the GFS at 1PM Easter Sunday. This shows precipitation amounts over the previous 6 hours. After several rounds of rainfall, there's at least a chance it will be over Easter morning for some portions of central and northern Arkansas.... A CHANCE. |
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| The GFS is advertising a STRONG cold front late next Monday with another push of chilly air. See how tightly packed those black lines are. Those isobars indicate a rapid change of surface pressure in a short distance. This produces very windy conditions. The front is located from east TX through N. LA eastward. The high is well north and the air is coming in on a ENE wind. Again, the green blobs show precip over the last 6 hours and yes, that's a little snow on the north edge of the precip shield... NOT much though. Let's look at temps. |
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| These are temperatures from the Euro model around that same time. The cold front is plain and obvious here. You go from 80s in west TX to 20s and 30s in OK. That's remarkable!!!! The cold air is seen pushing into northern Arkansas as well. While the temperatures may reach spring like levels, another push of cold air is on the way it appears by Monday night into Tuesday. |
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| DON'T TRUST THE SPECIFICS!!!!!!!!!! This is the GFS next Wednesday. A WEEK AWAY! There is absolutely NO way the model will get this exactly right, but look at the idea. The upside down "U" in the Gulf is low pressure forming with cold air in place. Remember that upper level energy out west? Well here it comes and it's a COLD miserable rain again and the model sees a wintry mix over west central to NW AR. DON'T TRUST THE DETAILS HERE, BUT I CAN'T DECLARE WINTER OVER WITH BECAUSE OF THIS. |
Friday, March 22, 2013
Arctic Oscillation Pointing Towards Easter Precipitation
What a week!? At this time last week I warned you about a "spring break gone wild." Let's look back a little and then I'll tell you what could be way down the road.
Here's a tweet I sent out on March 15th...
After highs in the lower 80s last Friday and Saturday, a strong cold front pushed into central Arkansas Sunday. Northern and central Arkansas sat in the 40s and 50s all day while southern areas warmed into the 60s and 70s. Monday, we had severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern Arkansas. We thought Tuesday and Wednesday would be the pick days, then a cold rain with snow possible up north. Never say never to Arkansas Weather! Salem had the most snow coming in at 8'' and Little Rock had a little sleet, then a cold and miserable rain.
After a Saturday with more cold and rain chances, we'll see some drier, but COLD weather Sunday through Tuesday, then temperatures will begin to climb out of this hole we're in. It's next weekend I have my eyes on. Easter COULD be a bumpy ride and I'll explain why here.
At our last meeting of the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society/National Weather Association, Meteorologist John Lewis gave a fantastic presentation about the climate in Arkansas in 2012 and what to expect in 2013. He mentioned something that really caught my attention. He said a sudden rise in the arctic oscillation index usually coincides with heavy rain and/or severe weather. It makes sense when you think about it. Let me explain and I'll try to make this as simple as possible. When the Arctic Oscillation index (AO) is negative, this means cold air is allowed to move south out of the polar regions and suppresses the storm track with it. This is typically when we get cold air and wintry weather. Once it goes positive, the cold air and storm track shifts to the north. This index can usually only be forecast accurately within 2 weeks. Let's look at the AO Now and where it's going.
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| Look how extremely negative it is and it coincides with the big northern Arkansas snow Thursday evening. |
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| The Global Forecasting System Ensembles agree with a sudden rise going into Easter Weekend, then it drops off again. We'll worry about that later. Now let's look at what the two main long range computer models indicate Easter weekend as the GFS and Euro have a storm system, but differ in the details. |
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| DON'T TRUST THE SPECIFICS!!!!! This is Easter Sunday at 7PM. Look at the area of low pressure over the Texas Panhandle. High pressure is located off the east coast. This is sending in a fetch of Gulf moisture ahead of that low. This would be a classic set up for heavy rain and big thunderstorms. However, like I said, DON'T TRUST THE SPECIFICS. The only thing I want you to see here is that there is a storm and warmer/moist air is transported northward as the AO rises. |
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| This is the European model Easter Sunday at 1PM. This is a flatter look and mainly a heavy rain producer. Again, don't trust the specifics, but you can see there is a front and storm system to deal with. The cold air is north. See that blue dashed line? That's a good indicator to the rain/snow line and it has retreated well north as the AO rises. All the green and yellow blobs are precipitation amounts over the previous 6 hours. |
In summary, the next few days will be cold, but we come out of this hole with milder temperatures going into Easter weekend. With the AO's rise, we see the cold air retreating and the data shows a storm system next weekend. How it affects us is unknown due to the long range nature of forecasting. This could be just rain or we could deal with some big storms too. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Spring Break Gone Wild, The Video
This is a very in depth video explaining the snow situation hour by hour and the HUGE model differences this weekend. It's a must watch.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
More Spring Break Gone Wild. Snow to Severe Weather?
We told you late last week snow was possibly on the table for late this week and you see the forecasts out there now. One person in frustration even unfollowed me on twitter because she was so upset about the snow potential. Anyway, just remember where you heard about it first, the Arkansas Weather Blog. I still think this is mainly a northern Arkansas snow and ice event and a cold rain in central and southern sections. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Wild weather eh? Spring break has been no picnic around here!
Now onto the tremendous model differences Saturday. Once again we have a huge difference between the Euro and the GFS. It still amazes me to this day people forecast only using the GFS. I wonder if the Euro had MOS output like the GFS if that would ever change? I like to look at all the info. out there to make the best forecast for you. With that said, this is a tough one late Saturday. If you believe the GFS, we could have a round of strong to severe thunderstorms. If you believe the Euro, it's a cold rain. Many of you have seen the stories published in newspapers and on TV about the serious problems the GFS model has compared to the Euro. Make no mistake, the Euro isn't perfect, but it is better and has a great track record this winter. Let's not even talk about the NAM. Although, I will give it credit for last Sunday's forecast. I guess a broken clock is even right twice a day.
I'll have more information about the north Arkansas snow Wednesday, but for now check out the forecast challenges this weekend.
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| This is the Euro valid late Saturday. There's a surface low over west Texas and we're getting a northeast to east wind at the surface with rain. See those black lines? Those are isobars which are lines of equal pressure. The faint gray arrows are pointing to the SW meaning the surface wind is out of the northeast. This is a cold, miserable rain. BIG snows over Kansas though. The Euro takes this low almost due east putting any potential for significant severe weather south of the state. |
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| This is the GFS early Sunday morning and it takes the surface low into Missouri. Morning is not a favorable time for severe weather, but if this track verifies and the timing changes, things could get rough. I just want to point out to you the big differences between the two major models. |
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| This is the GFS forecast instability. It's showing significant CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across the southern half of the state. This would support big time storms. |
In summary, many times neither model is correct and it's somewhere in between. This could turn out to be just a rain maker or we could deal with some severe weather issues. After this low passes, MORE cold air will move back in and stay awhile. When I say "cold", I'm talking about relative to average for this time of year. I think it could be well below that too.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Spring Break Gone Wild Part Deux
About a week ago I mentioned winter wasn't over by a long shot. The European model warned us at that point in time what would happen today. While wrong with the specifics, it showed the cold coming back with a swath of snow just north of the state and that's what happened.
If you were watching the news Saturday morning and evening, I told ya Sunday's forecast was a tough one depending on where the boundary was located. It should be noted some of the models were completely off within 24 hours! However, I did notice the NAM and our model, Futurecast, did a very good job handling the situation.
So is winter over with yet? No. I'm not declaring it due to what will happen late this week into the weekend. While there is NO guarantee wintry precipitation returns, there will be a chill in the air. What a spring break week! I know it's not what the kids wanted on their time off, but it's going to be interesting to track! On a positive note, Tuesday and Wednesday should be fine, but temperatures will not be warm. Look for upper 50s to mid 60s across the state.
The interesting weather starts Thursday and goes into Friday. However, the latest GFS has fun and games Sunday too. I want to be crystal clear right now when I tell you I don't think the models have a good handle on how this will exactly unfold. While there is agreement a cold rain will affect the state, I'm sure how this plays out will change until we get closer to Thursday and Friday.
What about the chance for wintry weather? Yes, it's there for northern Arkansas. It's wayyyyyyyy too early to get specific about this, but it can't be ruled out. Since we're going into late March, any wintry weather episode is very, very brief and IF it happens, road conditions are not bad for a long period of time whatsoever. The higher sun angle does an efficient job at melting.
Please always remember, the purpose of this blog is not to make an official forecast, but show you the things I'm watching. Also, I will use maps from weatherbell.com. It's subscription only, but if you're a weathergeek, we'll worth it. Fantastic job they have done with that site!
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| This is the Euro valid late Thursday. Look at the dark blue line running through northern Arkansas. That's the freezing line at 2 meters. The green and blue blobs are precipitation amounts over the previous 6 hours. That's frozen up north according to that. Again, don't panic. Look below. |
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| The GFS at the same time looks slower and warmer. The green is rain, blue and purple frozen. There's disagreement here, but it does show a chilly rain in the state. |
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| Here's the Euro valid late Friday. Still more waves of rain and look at the 35 degree line over western and northern Arkansas. COLD!!!!!! |
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| AND JUST FOR FUN. DON'T TAKE THIS TO THE BANK!!!!!!!!! Here's the Euro snowfall accumulation. |
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| The 18Z Sunday GFS valid next Sunday. I think it's having trouble handling different waves of energy, but you can't write off winter looking at this map. |
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| Back to late next Thursday. Here are temperatures from the Euro. The frontal boundary sticks out like a sore thumb. Look how cold it is across the state. It's my gut feeling this is overdone and it's not quite as cold. We'll see. |
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| And on Friday evening, it's still cold |
With all this said, spring break so far has been wild and it looks to turn wild again late in the week.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Spring Break Gone Wild
I told ya winter isn't over and done with yet. Being from Arkansas and remembering the recent devastating freeze in April 2007, much can happen around here this time of year. Rarely does the weather flip from cold to warm and STAY warm. Last year it did, but that was due to a very easy to recognize global pattern. This year is a classic winter vs spring and they will fight it out. Of course spring will win, it's just how many rounds will we need to go for that to happen? Again this is VERY, VERY typical. We can get some serious rounds of warm air only to have cold return and winter laugh at us. The model data in the previous post was simply the European throwing a warning shot. Long range details should never be trusted, but it was signaling winter isn't over by a long shot.
So far this month, Little Rock is about 3.5 degrees below average. After Friday's near 80 degree weather, that number will definitely get closer to 0. It may even go ABOVE average after what I'm about to show you for the weekend. Remember, there are some private company forecasters who say March will be 6 degrees below average. After this weekend, to get there, we will have to have some MEGA cold. And guess what? I think it will be cold again, BUT it will be difficult to get to that forecast as I thought. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of weatherbell.com is the one who put that forecast out there. I have nothing but tremendous respect for what he does and I'm not trying to "diss" him. I could never do what he does. I strongly disagreed with his forecast for March here in the south, but it IS rooted in sound meteorological principle. He's one of the few out there who goes out on a limb, explains it scientifically, and puts his name on it! It will be interesting to see how March ends up, but I have a feeling it will not end up as cold as he forecast here in Arkansas. We'll see
Now onto the maps courtesy of weatherbell.com. If you love looking at model data, in my opinion, it's the best site out there. The information is incredible. It's subscription only, but for my profession, it's a must buy!
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| This is Sunday at 1PM. Can you tell where the front is located? Northern Arkansas is in the 40s while central and southern Arkansas will be in the 60s and 70s!!!!! HUGE temperature difference eh? But this front will have a tough time moving south. |
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| This is late Thursday next week and there's a MEGA cold front and it's all the way through AR according to the Euro. Look at that!!!!!!!!! Temperatures are in the 30s and 40s statewide Thursday! Spring break fun??? Maybe not. |
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| And this is late Friday. More cold air. What a way to spend the last part of spring break huh? And yes, there's a very high chance for precipitation so stay tuned. Mostly cold rain. |
Monday, March 11, 2013
Winter Is NOT Over By A Long Shot
In the previous post I told ya winter isn't over yet. It's making a brief appearance Monday into Wednesday, then another BIG warm up will start. This will have you thinking winter is in the rear view mirror, but I strongly disagree. I'll have more later this week, but I wanted to show you Sunday's wild run of the European model. It looks like there will be a major storm threat around St. Patty's Day. Details and specifics are impossible to predict this far out. I'm NOT saying it's going to snow, but I do think it's a good bet more cold air surges south before spring sets in for good.
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| This is valid Monday March 18th. The black lines are isobars (lines of equal barometric pressure). Look at the area of low pressure forming in the Carolina's (1004). A strong surface high is in the Dakota's (1038). The flow around these features is blasting Arkansas with a cold north wind. This implies a MAJOR eastern United States blizzard threat. |
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| This is Tuesday March 19th. It's COOOOLLLLLDDDDD here with a gigantic storm over the eastern United States. This would pretty much grind air travel to a halt and would have a ripple effect throughout the country IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY! AND THAT'S A BIG IF! Remember, this is more than a week away so let's watch it. |
Thursday, March 07, 2013
Winter Is Over. Grab Your Shorts and the Sunscreen.
Now that I got you here. Don't do what the title of this blog says just yet.
It seems wherever I go people are anxious for the weather to swing to spring. I posted the following on facebook last Friday...
"Only 115 days until daylight hours begin to get shorter. Already looking forward to next winter."
That received almost 70 comments and most were rooting for spring to get here quickly. Don't get me wrong, I like spring in Arkansas. The only reason I don't like it is because I know what's coming shortly after that... 115 degrees with the heat index of 190 degrees. I grew up here in Arkansas and as you know, summers can have unbearable heat.
Some of you already have spring fever as early week temperatures soared into the 60 and 70s. But I want to remind you below of what can happen in Arkansas during the month of March. Last March I was very confident winter would NOT come back and spring was here to stay. This year, that confidence is NOT there. There are several factors going on around the world which point to temperature roller coasters along with a stormy pattern. That can lead to some wild weather as spring and winter battle it out.
If we were in court, here's my evidence why winter isn't over...
Exhibit "A"
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| MARCH 4TH, 2008 IN DARDENLLE. |
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| MARCH 7th, 2008 IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS |
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| National Weather Service winter storm warning on March 20th, 2010. Fayetteville had several inches of snow. |
Here's video the "WeatherNinja took on Rich Mountain that day. Almost blizzard conditions.
Exhibit "D"
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| This is the surface map from March 8th, 1994. I'm still trying to find pictures of this event and I know I have home video of it on VHS. I gotta get that into my computer soon. This is off the Penn State ewall side. The surface low over west Texas rode south of the state with plenty of cold air in place. Those black lines are isobars and it shows the typical east-northeast wind flow at the surface for a good ole fashion snow in Arkansas. Thanks to Brian Smith at the NWS in North Little Rock for providing these snow amounts. Eureka Springs, 18.3'', Evening Shade 18.1'', Calico Rock 19'', Pocahontas 16'', Bentonville 14'' and Conway .6'' |
My point to all this? Winter can come roaring back, but the chances are not great at all. I never throw in the towel unless I'm 100% certain. There's that smidgen of a chance snow lovers could see flakes fly again.
What about the Sunday system I told you about more than a week ago. We'll it looked impressive on the modeling at that time. (that's typical). Right now, I would only expect rain as 1-2 inches will be possible. The threat for severe weather is low, but I'll watch it. That's why I haven't blogged much about it. Doesn't look like it's going to be a big system other than the rainfall.
Saturday, March 02, 2013
Meteorological March Madness
BACK TO BLOGGING EITHER LATE TODAY OR THURSDAY AM. STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT POST!
Several days ago I warned this could be the coldest opening to March in many years. Here are a few tweets from the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock.
"The high temperature of 42 degrees at Little Rock today was the coldest March 1 high since 1995. #arwx"
"At N. Little Rock, a Trace of snow fell. It's the 1st March snow at N Little Rock since 2008, ties a record for the date from 2002. #arwx"
"The high at Harrison today was 32. This is the coldest March 1st high temperature since 1980. #arwx"
Some say March came in like a lamb. I disagree. When it's cold, windy, cloudy, with snow flurries, that's more of a lion around here.
Does it end here? I don't think so. While it WILL get warmer, there are more wild times ahead which is usually the case in March in Arkansas as winter and spring battle it out.
First of all, Sunday morning will be extremely cold, then a brief warm up will begin. After lows in the teens and 20s, cold high pressure will move away and temperatures will approach 50. The new North American Model says it could get close to 70 Monday ahead of a front with strong southwest winds. I think that IS within the realm of possibilities. A strong cold front will bring some rain and a strong thunderstorm late Monday, then readings settle back down again, but not to the levels they are at Saturday. Another warm up will get underway later in the week, then it gets interesting.
I have been talking about a strong storm system around March 10th for several days now and it's looking more and more likely. While it's still tough to pinpoint specifics, I think this will be a heavy rain and thunderstorm producer, but I'm watching for possible wintry weather. I think the highest chance for that will be west and north of the state. This can still change though.
What about the rest of the month? NOAA has just released their 30 day outlook for March. I get so disappointed when I see a big "EC" written all over it. That means there are "equal chances" of it being above average, average, or below average. If you're going to do a long range forecast and tax payers are going to pay your salary, give us something better than that! In my opinion, that tells me they have no idea what's going to happen. I'll admit I'm not an expert in long range forecasting, but I know there are people at NOAA who make these forecasts are suppose to be experts in this field. It really frustrates me if you can't tell.
With that said, there are meteorologists in the private sector who are very talented in long range forecasting. While I can't post their maps here, there are some who are calling for MUCH below average temperatures this month. We'll see. At least they are willing to put it out there and put their name next to it.
I'll blog more later about the March 10th system.
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| Here's NOAA's outlook for March. The Big "EC" covers the majority of the southwest, central, and eastern United States. Their confidence level is high enough to indicate a good chance for below average temperatures across the northwest and Alaska. |
Friday, March 01, 2013
Winter Weather Contest Winner
Congratulations to Darin Thomas!!! Here's what he wins.
Stay tuned for details on the 2013 Summer contest!
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| A 16GB ipad 2 wifi |
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| A copy of RadarScope for your new ipad. Check out their website... www.basevelocity.com |
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| The Weathergeek Pro app so you can look at the computer models on your new ipad. Their site is http://www.weathergeekpro.com/ |
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| An "Arkansas Weather Geek" t-shirt from the "WeatherNinja" His site is www.arkansasweathergeeks.com |
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| 4 Tickets to the Golden Corral in North Little Rock --> |
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