Monday, January 31, 2011
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Wild, Wacky Weather Week
9:15 PM Sunday Update... I have no changes to my prior thinking, but I wanted to give you a little more insight into what will happen Tuesday and beyond.Rain will be heavy across much of Arkansas Tuesday with a wintry mix across the north. By the afternoon, the surface low will move east and our winds will begin to come out of the west and northwest at speeds of 15-25 mph. Temperatures will tumble, but the best moisture will be gone by the time the subfreezing air arrives. There could be a change over briefly late Tuesday, but it won't be much if any. The real deal will be west and north of Arkansas. The northwest corner of the state will have some ice, then snow. The higher elevations of far northern Arkansas may also have a wintry mix turn to snow before ending with some accumulation. The southeastern part of the state could even get into a few thunderstorms. The temperature contrast across Arkansas Tuesday afternoon will be wild... 20s north to near 70 southeast. We're still 36-48 hours away (as of Sunday night) and things could still change, but probably not by much. This will a huge storm affecting millions of Americans.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday morning will be bitterly cold and I don't think the models have a full grasp on that just yet due to the fresh snowpack to the north. Our air will move over that snow and bring an extra chill.
I'll keep you updated Monday and Tuesday!
8 AM Sunday Update... Just had a very quick look at all the data this morning and it seems all the models are showing a track of the low pressure which would only bring wintry weather to northwest Arkansas. It's mostly a cold rain in central Arkansas with thunderstorms possible across the far south and southeast corner of the state. This will be a situation where temperatures across the state will be in the 20s northwest to near 70 southeast... a HUGE contrast. For those of you wanting winter weather, I know you must be disappointed, but on Tuesday, step back and watch this storm with appreciation. You will not often see a system so dynamic bring extreme types of weather to such a large area of the country. I wish I could bring the snow here, but it's just not in the cards this time.
There is a chance for a very brief change over to some light/snow or ice in central Arkansas late Tuesday, but I have big doubts about that. We may get a dry punch of air at that time which ends the precipitation. Some moisture will wrap around the storm and bring light snow to northern Arkansas. The one thing we definitely can count on is the cold weather following the system. I still think the difference between highs Saturday (77 in Little Rock) and lows by the end of next week, could be around 60 degrees. The air traveling over the fresh snow pack to the north will keep the temperatures chilled here.
Some of the models keep a piece of energy in the southwestern United States and eject it out late in the week. One model even tries to bring some wintry weather back into the state, but at this time, it's the only one doing this. I'll keep watching it for you. Again, Tuesday will be fun to watch the extreme nature to this storm across the central United States. It's our neighbors to our north and west who will talk about this for a very long time... enjoy mother nature at work.
I'll have another post later today and if anything changes (it always could), I will let you now A.S.A.P.
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From a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in North Little Rock...
"IN EVERY FORECASTERS CAREER THERE ARE CERTAIN SITUATIONS WHICH ARE CLEAR-CUT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...THE FORECAST DOESN'T VARY MUCH FROM RUN TO RUN...YOU END UP WITH WHAT STARTS OUT AS AND REMAINS AN EASY FORECAST.
THIS IS NOT ONE OF THEM. FIRST...I'LL TALK ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
DETAILS...THEN THE MODEL ISSUES."
It's the truth, this next storm is the king of challenges. To hang your hat on any particular model run is setting yourself up for a big time busted forecast. I don't think we will have a clearer picture until the arctic air really gets into the United States and the storm system in the Pacific Ocean comes ashore. I have seen model runs giving northwest Arkansas a foot + of snow only to have the next show 1 inch. Forgive me if I sound like a broken record, arctic air is not handled well by any model. Some do a better job and theoretically the NAM should see it better with its higher resolution and better interpretation of topography. However, the NAM has performed lousy this winter. Maybe this time it will redeem itself. The GFS keeps shifting the track of the surface low... south, north, south, north. The Euro had a BIG snow for much of the state just 2 days ago, it's now in the warm camp. I think for northern Arkansas there is a much higher degree of confidence in wintry weather. It's further south into central Arkansas where the low level arctic air will give forecasters fits. I have been forecasting for more than a decade now and have never seen a forecast bust too cold in this type of situation so you can see my worry with this. It's not snow that I'm concerned with in central Arkansas, it's ice and it all depends on that area of low pressure and how far south the arctic air penetrates. Right now I think a cold rain is a safe bet in Little Rock. As that low passes to the south and east, very cold air will pour into this region of the state. How much moisture will remain at that time? I think a dry slot of air COULD travel into our neck of the woods and choke off the moisture at that time. It's also possible for moisture to wrap around the area of low pressure and bring the wintry precipitation further south into Little Rock Tuesday night. Again, this is pure speculation right now as the models are having a difficult time.
Now the cold behind this system also varies with each model you look at. Right now, I have to side with the colder modeling for the period Wednesday through Friday for a couple of reasons. First, most of the data shows a 1044 mb + high coming out of Canada. There isn't much that will stop that cold air from flowing southward. It's like water falling down a mountain... good luck stopping it. Second, that air will be transported from the north over a fresh snow pack. This will keep the air chilled. It's those reasons I have highs not getting above freezing Thursday with lows in the teens.
I urge you not to think for a second that this forecast is etched in stone. Anyone who tells you they know exactly what will happen isn't telling you the full truth. The picture will become clearer soon and you can bet I'll be here to tell you all about it.
You can expect a BIG post Sunday... as if this isn't one.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Model Flip Flop
7:20 AM Saturday Update... I will have a full update later today, but here are my thoughts this morning.
We still don't know the exact track of the surface low and the GFS has trended a little south over the past couple runs. I still think this is a cold rain for us, but northern Arkansas will have to watch out for wintry conditions Tuesday. Other models take the surface low much further to the north, but I'm not sure if I buy into that YET! Arctic air has a habit of making it further south and stronger than forecast.
The GFS is forecasting highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s by the middle to end of next week. I will more than likely have to take our high temperatures down in our 7 day forecast. The Tuesday storm will lay down a fresh snow pack to our north. With arctic air traveling across those fields of white, it will add an extra chill to the air. Again, I will have a very in depth update here later today, but make sure you get outside and enjoy the weather!
2:30 PM Friday Update... It's a beautiful day for sure with another one coming Saturday. Look for highs around 70 degrees this afternoon and again tomorrow. I have had a chance to examine the 12Z models and thought it would be a good time to give you an update. While we are very certain of a major and disruptive system Tuesday for much of the central United States, the details still need to be sorted out. The models continue with a northward and warmer trend. The GFS even takes highs into the mid 50s Tuesday, but at this time, I'm undercutting readings with highs in the 40s. If you forecast based only on models, it's a cold rain for most of the state with a change over to some snow/ice before ending across the north. While that is still very much possible, I think more swings in the data will offer different solutions until we get to Sunday or Monday. Why? The system is still offshore and hasn't been sampled well for the models to get an accurate read. Also, the strength of the high and the low level arctic air will be a challenge for the models to analyze and it will be a challenge for them to correctly forecast the exact track of the low. You also have to remember what happened earlier this week with the storm over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. The models didn't have a clue 3 to 4 days prior to that event. I think the same can be said here. Right now, based on all the available data, it's a cold rain for most of the Natural State and that's what I'll have in my forecast, but I will also warn everyone to keep checking back to find out the latest. More later....
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I just couldn't resist it. I hope it gave you a good laugh. The models are flipping and flopping all over the place once again. They all agree there will be a storm next week, but the key disagreement is the placement of the surface low. As we examine and watch all the data over the next several days, you must watch where the surface low tracks. The further north... warmer... and the further south... colder. Most of the computer models shifted a little north late Thursday and this would bring a cold rain to much of the state followed by a change over to a wintry mix on the back side of the system.
You must remember, we are dealing with low level arctic air next week and it naturally wants to spread downhill like water on a mountain. I can't see the surface low tracking much further north into the colder air, but I guess anything is possible. Check out the various computer model runs from last night and look at where the surface low is at 6 PM Tuesday according to the GFS, Euro, GEM, and UKMET The other thing to look at on this map is the very strong high pressure in the northern plains. This will bring the extremely cold air into our region next week. Remember, the models rarely handle advancing arctic air masses well. They typically arrive sooner and stronger than forecast.
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| 00Z Euro valid 6 PM Tuesday. Surface low directly over Little Rock. This would bring nothing but a cold rain followed by a change over once the system departs. |
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| 06Z GFS valid 6 PM Tuesday. Surface low near Shreveport. Freezing line at the surface is through northern AR. The model usually underestimates the southern extent of the sub-freezing air |
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| The 00Z UKMET valid 6 PM Tuesday. Surface low a bit faster and to the southeast over Jackson, MS. This would argue for a colder temperature profile and more wintry weather, especially to the northwest half of the state. |
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| 00Z GEM valid Tuesday at 6 PM. Surface low near Memphis with a cold rain for most of the state. This could bring a change over to wintry weather on the back side, especially Tuesday night over western and northern Arkansas |
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Video Blog Discussion... Groundhog Day Trouble?
12:15 PM Thursday Update... Even though this model will change several times, I wanted to show you why the 12Z GFS poses an ICE problem and not a purely rain event. Again, this is not what we are sold on happening, but I just wanted to show you who read models what this set up on this mornings model run shows...
In the sounding below, you can see the freezing line marked 0 (0 degrees Celsius) runs diagonally from the ground up. The red line indicates temperature and it's to the left of the 0 line at the surface. This shows you the shallow nature to the arctic airmass next week. As you go up in elevation, notice it shifts to the right of the 0 degree line, this is a warmer layer aloft where snow will melt into rain as it falls into it. The question remains, will the the subfreezing surface layer be thick enough to freeze the water droplets into ice (sleet) or will it not have enough time and freeze on contact (freezing rain). OR will the cold air be deep enough to keep it all snow? There's even the question, will any of this happen at all? This is several days away and will change. This gives everyone a chance to see what we COULD potentially be dealing with on Groundhogs Day. You must also remember, the models ALWAYS underestimate the strength of cold, dense arctic air. The timing of the arrival can be problematic as well. It tends to arrive earlier than model forecasts. So much to watch next week!
Watch the video blog discussion below for an even more in depth look at the potential next week.
As we have said here for about a week now, there's potential to really warm temperatures up Friday and Saturday. This is what I call "false spring" or even a "January Thaw". Readings could go into the 60s and lower 70s, but it will NOT last long! There's the potential to have more than a 50 degree swing in temperatures from this weekend into the middle of next week. The computer models are in better agreement about what will happen next Tuesday and Wednesday, but there are still differences. Hold on tight, the next week will be a WILD, WILD ride. Check out the video below...
Video streaming by Ustream
In the sounding below, you can see the freezing line marked 0 (0 degrees Celsius) runs diagonally from the ground up. The red line indicates temperature and it's to the left of the 0 line at the surface. This shows you the shallow nature to the arctic airmass next week. As you go up in elevation, notice it shifts to the right of the 0 degree line, this is a warmer layer aloft where snow will melt into rain as it falls into it. The question remains, will the the subfreezing surface layer be thick enough to freeze the water droplets into ice (sleet) or will it not have enough time and freeze on contact (freezing rain). OR will the cold air be deep enough to keep it all snow? There's even the question, will any of this happen at all? This is several days away and will change. This gives everyone a chance to see what we COULD potentially be dealing with on Groundhogs Day. You must also remember, the models ALWAYS underestimate the strength of cold, dense arctic air. The timing of the arrival can be problematic as well. It tends to arrive earlier than model forecasts. So much to watch next week!
Watch the video blog discussion below for an even more in depth look at the potential next week.
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| 12Z GFS showing an ICE potential |
As we have said here for about a week now, there's potential to really warm temperatures up Friday and Saturday. This is what I call "false spring" or even a "January Thaw". Readings could go into the 60s and lower 70s, but it will NOT last long! There's the potential to have more than a 50 degree swing in temperatures from this weekend into the middle of next week. The computer models are in better agreement about what will happen next Tuesday and Wednesday, but there are still differences. Hold on tight, the next week will be a WILD, WILD ride. Check out the video below...
Video streaming by Ustream
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Video Blog Discussion... Model Madness
1 PM Wednesday Update... Model madness continues in the long range with huge differences remaining after this mornings run of the GFS and Euro. I typically favor the Euro, but the GFS hasn't done a bad job this winter so its solution does have credibility.
We'll start off with the European as it shows an area of surface low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. You can clearly see a strong surface high in southeast Montana. This is 1040 mb or maybe slightly higher. The Tuesday morning map featured the surface low in NE Arkansas with rain for much of the state and possibly changing over to some snow before ending across northern AR. This shows a very cold Wednesday with low clouds likely across the NE half of the state and MAYBE flurries. Winds would be howling out of the north at speeds of 15-20 mph as temperatures would not get out of the 20s across the north and only low to mid 30s elsewhere. As that surface high shifted south and settles on the state, lows at the end of next week could easily be in the single digits and teens statewide. Go below for the 12Z GFS...
The 12Z GFS says, "what storm"? It's chilly, but not nearly as cold as the European is above. There's some light precipitation across Texas, but that's just about it. It appears there is weak low pressure zipping through the southeastern United States.
So you can see the model madness continues. I suspect we'll end up somewhere in the middle with an area of low pressure which travels further south. It's a week away so let's just be patient and watch these models sort themselves out.
Video streaming by Ustream
We'll start off with the European as it shows an area of surface low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. You can clearly see a strong surface high in southeast Montana. This is 1040 mb or maybe slightly higher. The Tuesday morning map featured the surface low in NE Arkansas with rain for much of the state and possibly changing over to some snow before ending across northern AR. This shows a very cold Wednesday with low clouds likely across the NE half of the state and MAYBE flurries. Winds would be howling out of the north at speeds of 15-20 mph as temperatures would not get out of the 20s across the north and only low to mid 30s elsewhere. As that surface high shifted south and settles on the state, lows at the end of next week could easily be in the single digits and teens statewide. Go below for the 12Z GFS...
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| 12Z Euro valid Wednesday Feb. 2nd at 6 AM |
The 12Z GFS says, "what storm"? It's chilly, but not nearly as cold as the European is above. There's some light precipitation across Texas, but that's just about it. It appears there is weak low pressure zipping through the southeastern United States.
So you can see the model madness continues. I suspect we'll end up somewhere in the middle with an area of low pressure which travels further south. It's a week away so let's just be patient and watch these models sort themselves out.
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| 12Z GFS valid Wednesday Feb. 2nd at 6 AM |
Video streaming by Ustream
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Video Blog Discussion... Tuesday Trouble and Beyond
12:30 PM Monday Update... Thought I would update you on the situation Tuesday and beyond. I still feel it's eastern Arkansas which stands the best chance for some rain changing to snow Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold low moves overhead. The GFS is even showing some accumulation over far eastern areas. This model seems to be playing catch-up to all the other modeling out there so my question remains, how far west will this eventually end up? Check out the latest version of our exclusive model "Futurecast". Remember, this is only a model and not a forecast. It's showing even more in the way of accumulation for the SE half of the state including Little Rock. Am I buying it???? Not right now, but it got my attention for sure...
Now for an update on next weekend and beyond. The Euro last night brings the next batch of arctic air into the state Monday (Feb. 1st) with waves of moisture arriving from the southwest. The late run of the GFS yesterday was not showing much in the way of precip. but now the new morning run is showing a set up more conducive to bringing in the moisture. Still enough disagreement to keep this a low confidence forecast in this time range... stay tuned.
8:25 AM Monday Update... I decided not to start a new post so you can see the possibilities in the video blog discussion below. Here we are just 24-36 hours away from this new storm deepening over the mid south and the models are not yet in agreement. To me the question is how much of the precipitation shield works to the northwest and what's the temperature at the surface. The UKMET, CMC, and the JMA all bring the precipitation further to the NW than the more widely used modeling GFS and NAM. Even if the precip. works further to the NW Tuesday, surface temperatures could be too warm for anything but rainfall. However, many of you know what a strong area of low pressure aloft can do. There can be enough cooling to bring wintry precipitation to the ground and give forecasters a BIG headache. Even the National Weather Service forecasts out of Little Rock and Memphis are accounting for at least a little frozen precipitation on the northern fringe, especially late Tuesday. Even if nothing happens with this, I still find the entire situation amazing to watch considering the development of this storm is several hundred miles away from what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.
Now onto the remainder of the forecast. The period Tuesday through Thursday still looks cool with temperatures running below average. A new arctic boundary will make a dive towards Arkansas next weekend, BUT ahead of it, we could see some STRONG warming Friday. We have been talking about this here on the blog for several days now. The 00Z GFS is even taking temperatures into the 60s in Little Rock Friday. Now there are differences in the modeling as to how the next storm will unfold or will not unfold at all.
The GFS has an overpowering northwesterly wind flow which keeps the state dry and cold next week. The Euro has a different scenario all together. This model brings a strong area of low pressure into the southwestern United States and develops a southwesterly flow aloft. This would significantly slow down the intrusion of any arctic air..HOWEVER, you must always remember, the shallow nature of dense, arctic air usually ends up further south than the data forecasts. The Euro seems to want to eject pieces of energy in the southwesterly flow and bring precipitation chances into the state during the first couple of days of February. So there are differences which is very typical in the long range. While there will remain uncertainty, you can be certain we'll be here every step of the way to figure out mother nature's next move!!!!
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| 12Z Futurecast run from Monday |
Now for an update on next weekend and beyond. The Euro last night brings the next batch of arctic air into the state Monday (Feb. 1st) with waves of moisture arriving from the southwest. The late run of the GFS yesterday was not showing much in the way of precip. but now the new morning run is showing a set up more conducive to bringing in the moisture. Still enough disagreement to keep this a low confidence forecast in this time range... stay tuned.
8:25 AM Monday Update... I decided not to start a new post so you can see the possibilities in the video blog discussion below. Here we are just 24-36 hours away from this new storm deepening over the mid south and the models are not yet in agreement. To me the question is how much of the precipitation shield works to the northwest and what's the temperature at the surface. The UKMET, CMC, and the JMA all bring the precipitation further to the NW than the more widely used modeling GFS and NAM. Even if the precip. works further to the NW Tuesday, surface temperatures could be too warm for anything but rainfall. However, many of you know what a strong area of low pressure aloft can do. There can be enough cooling to bring wintry precipitation to the ground and give forecasters a BIG headache. Even the National Weather Service forecasts out of Little Rock and Memphis are accounting for at least a little frozen precipitation on the northern fringe, especially late Tuesday. Even if nothing happens with this, I still find the entire situation amazing to watch considering the development of this storm is several hundred miles away from what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.
Now onto the remainder of the forecast. The period Tuesday through Thursday still looks cool with temperatures running below average. A new arctic boundary will make a dive towards Arkansas next weekend, BUT ahead of it, we could see some STRONG warming Friday. We have been talking about this here on the blog for several days now. The 00Z GFS is even taking temperatures into the 60s in Little Rock Friday. Now there are differences in the modeling as to how the next storm will unfold or will not unfold at all.
The GFS has an overpowering northwesterly wind flow which keeps the state dry and cold next week. The Euro has a different scenario all together. This model brings a strong area of low pressure into the southwestern United States and develops a southwesterly flow aloft. This would significantly slow down the intrusion of any arctic air..HOWEVER, you must always remember, the shallow nature of dense, arctic air usually ends up further south than the data forecasts. The Euro seems to want to eject pieces of energy in the southwesterly flow and bring precipitation chances into the state during the first couple of days of February. So there are differences which is very typical in the long range. While there will remain uncertainty, you can be certain we'll be here every step of the way to figure out mother nature's next move!!!!
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Snow Wrap Up and What's Ahead
NEW BLOG POST SUNDAY DEALING WITH POSSIBLE "TUESDAY TROUBLE". THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. IN DEPTH ANALYSIS ONLY ON THE ARKANSAS WEATHER BLOG!
3 PM Saturday Update... I'm feeling a little under the weather today so I'm not going to have a full blog post until Sunday. As you know, the storm snow lovers were counting on will not materialize Sunday and Sunday night. I think a few rain showers will be possible and some snow showers across the north central and northeastern sections of the state will be possible.
The models are still trying to resolve a feature which will become a significant east coast storm later next week. Some of the upper level energy involved with this evolution should pass through Arkansas Monday night and Tuesday with a few light snow flurries, but not a big deal. There are even a couple of models (UKMET and the JMA) which try to crank up the storm further west into portions of southeast and eastern Arkansas Tuesday. I'm not buying that at all right now.
After reviewing the data over the past couple of days, it's becoming apparent that a southwesterly flow of air at the surface will develop at the end of this upcoming week. While it's still in the long term, if this happens, we can really crank those temperatures up well into the 50s and 60s. I don't think it will last long as the models show another arctic boundary pushing through the central United States with a strong and cold high pressure following. All eyes are also focused on the beginning of February. Some of the models show a storm trying to develop across the south. I can't get excited about that until we are within a 5-7 day window, but it's something to watch in the very long term.
Everyone enjoy your weekend and hopefully I'll have a video blog Sunday!
There were some things that went right with the forecast and some things that went wrong with it. Overall, I think it was a solid one, but in the immediate Little Rock area the urban heat island effect really showed up. All of the concrete, buildings, and cars helped keep temperatures warm enough to prevent any accumulation. As soon as you got into west Little Rock or further north into Sherwood, the snow accumulated from a dusting to .5''. I started to account for this possibility in my forecasting last night. Of course colder temperatures and more moisture brought 2-6'' amounts further north. Here are some snowfall amounts reported by the National Weather Service...
Boston (Madison county) 6''
Calico Rock 5''
Fayetteville 4''
Bee Branch 3''
Deer 3''
Des Arc 3''
Heber Springs 3''
Lead Hill 3''
Mountain View 3''
Marshall 3''
North Little Rock 1.4''
Maumelle 1''
Now onto Sunday afternoon. I'm not even going to pay much attention to the NAM model. I am very, very disappointed by its performance lately so I'm going to stick to the Euro and the GFS. This is a storm coming out of the northwest and these are usually moisture starved... not your typical set up for a good snow for Arkansas. The GFS brings some rain and changes it to snow Sunday afternoon and night. The Euro brings Little Rock .18'' of water which could equate to a couple inches of snow... BUT surface temperatures could be too warm initially for snow. The Euro has thickness values and upper level conditions supportive of frozen precipitation. Of course, all of this could change very, very easily.
I have updated the winter weather contest numbers. It's very interesting to watch how many are still in it to win it! You can access the entries and those numbers by clicking on the "Winter Contest" in the white bar above.
I'll keep you updated here and thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog.
3 PM Saturday Update... I'm feeling a little under the weather today so I'm not going to have a full blog post until Sunday. As you know, the storm snow lovers were counting on will not materialize Sunday and Sunday night. I think a few rain showers will be possible and some snow showers across the north central and northeastern sections of the state will be possible.
The models are still trying to resolve a feature which will become a significant east coast storm later next week. Some of the upper level energy involved with this evolution should pass through Arkansas Monday night and Tuesday with a few light snow flurries, but not a big deal. There are even a couple of models (UKMET and the JMA) which try to crank up the storm further west into portions of southeast and eastern Arkansas Tuesday. I'm not buying that at all right now.
After reviewing the data over the past couple of days, it's becoming apparent that a southwesterly flow of air at the surface will develop at the end of this upcoming week. While it's still in the long term, if this happens, we can really crank those temperatures up well into the 50s and 60s. I don't think it will last long as the models show another arctic boundary pushing through the central United States with a strong and cold high pressure following. All eyes are also focused on the beginning of February. Some of the models show a storm trying to develop across the south. I can't get excited about that until we are within a 5-7 day window, but it's something to watch in the very long term.
Everyone enjoy your weekend and hopefully I'll have a video blog Sunday!
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| Awesome Searcy Snowman |
Boston (Madison county) 6''
Calico Rock 5''
Fayetteville 4''
Bee Branch 3''
Deer 3''
Des Arc 3''
Heber Springs 3''
Lead Hill 3''
Mountain View 3''
Marshall 3''
North Little Rock 1.4''
Maumelle 1''
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| Snow Totals Thursday |
Now onto Sunday afternoon. I'm not even going to pay much attention to the NAM model. I am very, very disappointed by its performance lately so I'm going to stick to the Euro and the GFS. This is a storm coming out of the northwest and these are usually moisture starved... not your typical set up for a good snow for Arkansas. The GFS brings some rain and changes it to snow Sunday afternoon and night. The Euro brings Little Rock .18'' of water which could equate to a couple inches of snow... BUT surface temperatures could be too warm initially for snow. The Euro has thickness values and upper level conditions supportive of frozen precipitation. Of course, all of this could change very, very easily.
I have updated the winter weather contest numbers. It's very interesting to watch how many are still in it to win it! You can access the entries and those numbers by clicking on the "Winter Contest" in the white bar above.
I'll keep you updated here and thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog.
Thursday Snow
NEW BLOG POST WITH SNOW TOTALS AND WHAT'S NEXT COMING SOON!
As we have said here on the Arkansas Weather Blog since last weekend, this is not the storm from Sunday January 9th and it's northern section of the state that gets the most snow. After reviewing all the data from last night, I have no significant changes. I expect light rain changing to snow late this morning into the early afternoon hours in central Arkansas with amounts around 1'' with some spots possibly getting up to 2'' especially just north and west of the metro. Since temperatures will be hovering around freezing, I'm HOPING the main roads will just stay wet, but bridges and overpasses could get some slick spots. Secondary roads will also have to be watched carefully.
I will of course have more here on the blog and on twitter all throughout the day!
Many of you are curious about the Sunday/Monday system. The GFS continues to show a chance for some snow, but the Euro keeps anything that falls very light. With it several days away, this will still have a chance to change. I don't think the models are doing a great job handling how the pieces of puzzle come together with this one. Also, several of you have pointed out the high amounts of snow on the 120 hour GFS snowfall accumulation map I post quite often. You must remember that 120 hour map is taking into account TWO storm systems.. the one today and the one late this weekend. Just a quick glance at the 00Z run of the GFS, it shows Little Rock receiving around 1 to 1.5'' today and up to 2.5'' Sunday.
Stay here on the Arkansas Weather Blog for more information! Watch the radar!
As we have said here on the Arkansas Weather Blog since last weekend, this is not the storm from Sunday January 9th and it's northern section of the state that gets the most snow. After reviewing all the data from last night, I have no significant changes. I expect light rain changing to snow late this morning into the early afternoon hours in central Arkansas with amounts around 1'' with some spots possibly getting up to 2'' especially just north and west of the metro. Since temperatures will be hovering around freezing, I'm HOPING the main roads will just stay wet, but bridges and overpasses could get some slick spots. Secondary roads will also have to be watched carefully.
I will of course have more here on the blog and on twitter all throughout the day!
Many of you are curious about the Sunday/Monday system. The GFS continues to show a chance for some snow, but the Euro keeps anything that falls very light. With it several days away, this will still have a chance to change. I don't think the models are doing a great job handling how the pieces of puzzle come together with this one. Also, several of you have pointed out the high amounts of snow on the 120 hour GFS snowfall accumulation map I post quite often. You must remember that 120 hour map is taking into account TWO storm systems.. the one today and the one late this weekend. Just a quick glance at the 00Z run of the GFS, it shows Little Rock receiving around 1 to 1.5'' today and up to 2.5'' Sunday.
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| 120 hour GFS taking into account TWO storms |
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Another Arkansas Snow
10 PM Wednesday Update... You could hear the confusion on twitter once the 00Z NAM came out. It cut back on the snow amounts for northwest Arkansas, but continued with around 1'' for central Arkansas. The GFS this evening continues to stay the course with accumulations for the NW half of the state and central sections seeing 1'' maybe some spots up to 2''.
As we have said here from the very beginning, this is NOT the snowstorm from Sunday January 9th. The highest amounts should remain in the Ozarks. I'm still looking at rain showers in the morning turning over to snow around Noon to 1 PM in the metro area. Most of it will be done by 5 or 6 PM.
For those of you wanting more snow, there are indications of another system Sunday and Monday. It's still in the long range, but it does look promising for some sort of wintry weather.
Remember to send your snow pictures to photo@katv.com
4:25 PM Wednesday Update... The new afternoon version of the NAM says Little Rock should expect 1.7''. This models says it will start as rain around 10-noon, then mix with snow during the 12-1 PM hour. The precipitation will change to snow around 1 PM and last until almost 6 PM. THIS IS ONLY A MODEL. I wanted to point this out because I still feel this is a one inch snow for Little Rock with it possibly reaching 2''. The highest snow amounts should still occur across the mountains of northwest Arkansas.
I was driving around this afternoon and realized all the sand and salt still on the roads. I wonder if that will help keep them wet when all this starts. The models continue to show temperatures hovering right around 32-33 degrees Thursday afternoon. Check out the NAM model from its 18Z run.
10:15 AM Wednesday Update... The 12Z NAM went bonkers with snow totals in Little Rock as it shows around 3-3.5 inches. A preliminary look at the 12Z GFS indicates around 1''. I think a blend of these two models is a good course to follow right now with a 1-2'' possibility in central Arkansas. This is in no way our final forecast! I agree with Paul_The_Wxguru that the dynamics of the system don't really support the NAM forecast, BUT it did do a good job with the last snow once within 24 hours of the event. So basically, even within one day, there are disagreements which will make this forecast a tough one. Both models agree it's the Ozarks which will see several inches of snow. Once we get into Sunday night and Monday, yet another system COULD bring a wintry mix to the state. I don't remember a parade of systems like this since the 1980s... what a winter if that happens! Thanks for reading the Weather Blog... We are your ticket to BIG weather events. Check out the latest NAM below and the video blog discussion.
Everything is still coming together for a north Arkansas snow. The question remains... how far south does the snow go and how much accumulates? Remember, we said that if forecasts go wrong it's because the cold air is stronger. The models continue to trend in that direction. Check out the video and the maps below! Remember, these maps are not forecasts, only pieces of the weather puzzle.
As we have said here from the very beginning, this is NOT the snowstorm from Sunday January 9th. The highest amounts should remain in the Ozarks. I'm still looking at rain showers in the morning turning over to snow around Noon to 1 PM in the metro area. Most of it will be done by 5 or 6 PM.
For those of you wanting more snow, there are indications of another system Sunday and Monday. It's still in the long range, but it does look promising for some sort of wintry weather.
Remember to send your snow pictures to photo@katv.com
4:25 PM Wednesday Update... The new afternoon version of the NAM says Little Rock should expect 1.7''. This models says it will start as rain around 10-noon, then mix with snow during the 12-1 PM hour. The precipitation will change to snow around 1 PM and last until almost 6 PM. THIS IS ONLY A MODEL. I wanted to point this out because I still feel this is a one inch snow for Little Rock with it possibly reaching 2''. The highest snow amounts should still occur across the mountains of northwest Arkansas.
I was driving around this afternoon and realized all the sand and salt still on the roads. I wonder if that will help keep them wet when all this starts. The models continue to show temperatures hovering right around 32-33 degrees Thursday afternoon. Check out the NAM model from its 18Z run.
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| 18Z NAM |
10:15 AM Wednesday Update... The 12Z NAM went bonkers with snow totals in Little Rock as it shows around 3-3.5 inches. A preliminary look at the 12Z GFS indicates around 1''. I think a blend of these two models is a good course to follow right now with a 1-2'' possibility in central Arkansas. This is in no way our final forecast! I agree with Paul_The_Wxguru that the dynamics of the system don't really support the NAM forecast, BUT it did do a good job with the last snow once within 24 hours of the event. So basically, even within one day, there are disagreements which will make this forecast a tough one. Both models agree it's the Ozarks which will see several inches of snow. Once we get into Sunday night and Monday, yet another system COULD bring a wintry mix to the state. I don't remember a parade of systems like this since the 1980s... what a winter if that happens! Thanks for reading the Weather Blog... We are your ticket to BIG weather events. Check out the latest NAM below and the video blog discussion.
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| 12Z Wednesday NAM Snow forecast |
Everything is still coming together for a north Arkansas snow. The question remains... how far south does the snow go and how much accumulates? Remember, we said that if forecasts go wrong it's because the cold air is stronger. The models continue to trend in that direction. Check out the video and the maps below! Remember, these maps are not forecasts, only pieces of the weather puzzle.
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| 6 AM Thursday GFS Rain central and south. Snow north |
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| 10AM Thursday... snow line coming south |
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| Rain south with snow north half by Noon |
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| 3 PM Thursday. Snow northern 2/3 of the state |
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| 06Z GFS showing highest amounts in the Ozarks. 1-2'' central |
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| 06Z NAM showing highest amounts across the Ozarks. 1-2 inches central |
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| Exclusive Futurecast showing under 1'' central. |
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Snowy Thursday For Some, But Not Others
10:15 PM Tuesday Update... I have a weather update, but first I want to thank everyone who came down to meet us tonight. It was a little experiment to find out what kind of response we would get and it was great. I think at some point in the future we may organize a bigger gathering. Check out the video below of some of you who showed up.
Now onto the weather, the NAM came back colder and wetter. I think temperatures will only top out in the mid 30s Thursday. The latest NAM indicates anywhere from 1.5 to 2'' of snow for Little Rock with higher amounts up north. This is NOT a forecast, just one of four daily runs of this model. The GFS is still coming in as I type this, but looks promising for small snow amounts in central Arkansas. I get the feeling from many that 1-2 inches isn't considered much snow after the big one we had a little more than a week ago. I guess we're kinda spoiled after our 6 incher! If we do get this, remember those roads will become slick. I will of course have a full update Wednesday morning! Below is the 00Z NAM snowfall accumulations. Look at those mountains with the higher amounts. Probably a little overdone.
I have analyzed the latest data on this Tuesday morning and it still looks like a north Arkansas snow. In the last blog post, I stressed this would be a quick and light event, especially when compared to the January 9th snow. The GFS and NAM have their differences, but both agree on 1'' of snow or less in central Arkansas. For instance, the NAM only puts out less than .1'' for Little Rock and the GFS says anywhere from .5 to 1''. Remember, the NAM did an absolutely horrible job with the January 9th storm. Each storm is different, but I am hesitant to believe the NAM right now until we get to within 24 hours of the storm. The GFS is much colder than the NAM. For Thursday, the GFS indicates a high of only 37 and the NAM says 49. The GFS shows a mix in Little Rock of rain, snow, and sleet during Thursday afternoon with a change over to all snow around 5 to 6 PM. This will be short lived as most of the moisture moves to the east.
We are still a couple of days away from this so timing, strength, and track of the low can still change. But right now, I don't expect very much in central Arkansas. Northern areas stand the best chance for accumulating snow, and even that won't be much with a general 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts over the mountains.
Tonight, pay close attention to the twitter feed. That's all I can say right now. We're going to do something that really hasn't been done before on the Arkansas Weather Blog. It's kind of an experiment and it should be entertaining! Check out the maps below...
Now onto the weather, the NAM came back colder and wetter. I think temperatures will only top out in the mid 30s Thursday. The latest NAM indicates anywhere from 1.5 to 2'' of snow for Little Rock with higher amounts up north. This is NOT a forecast, just one of four daily runs of this model. The GFS is still coming in as I type this, but looks promising for small snow amounts in central Arkansas. I get the feeling from many that 1-2 inches isn't considered much snow after the big one we had a little more than a week ago. I guess we're kinda spoiled after our 6 incher! If we do get this, remember those roads will become slick. I will of course have a full update Wednesday morning! Below is the 00Z NAM snowfall accumulations. Look at those mountains with the higher amounts. Probably a little overdone.
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| 00Z NAM showing the northern half of the state getting snow. Highest in the Ozarks. 1-2'' central. |
We are still a couple of days away from this so timing, strength, and track of the low can still change. But right now, I don't expect very much in central Arkansas. Northern areas stand the best chance for accumulating snow, and even that won't be much with a general 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts over the mountains.
Tonight, pay close attention to the twitter feed. That's all I can say right now. We're going to do something that really hasn't been done before on the Arkansas Weather Blog. It's kind of an experiment and it should be entertaining! Check out the maps below...
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| Meteorologist Barry Brandt's morning snowfall potential |
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| 12Z Tuesday NAM snowfall amounts. Little if any in LR. 1-3'' north |
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| 12Z GFS Tues. Snow amounts. Light central AR with 1-3'' north. Higher amounts in the mountains |
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| 12Z exclusive "Futurecast" Little central sections. Highest north. |
Monday, January 17, 2011
Wintry Thursday? In Depth Discussion
8:30 AM Tuesday Update... Meteorologist Barry Brandt has put together a preliminary snowfall accumulation forecast. Remember, we are still a couple of days away from the onset of wintry weather and this could still change. But based on the current data, this is the latest thinking.
8:15 AM Tuesday Update...I have no changes. I still think it's the northern 1/3 of the state that has the best chance for accumulating snow. Draw a line from Fort Smith to near Heber Springs to Blytheville and northward. These areas will see 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts in the mountains. In central Arkansas... rain which could change to sleet during the afternoon. If there's a changeover to snow, it will be on the back end of the system and the moisture will be limited at that time so I only expect less than an inch at best.
I'll have more later this morning.
3:30 PM Monday Update... WOW, the blog is getting very active again with the possibilities for winter weather. I encourage you to watch the video discussion below if you haven't. I really lay out the situation and what could go wrong with the forecast. I have looked at the data this afternoon and I have no changes. This will be a light and quick event, but enough to cause travel headaches, especially across northern Arkansas.
The European model has two more winter weather possibilities over the next 10 days. Besides the one Thursday, there is some concern Monday (January 24th) and again Thursday (January 27th). We're talking about the long term here so don't get too excited, but at least we have something to watch for awhile. It's rare in Arkansas to get hit after hit after hit with winter weather events, but if you get locked into a pattern, anything can happen. As my bio says on twitter... "following this crazy Arkansas weather". There's nothing normal about it and that's what makes us the weather geeks we are!
During the 10 o'clock newscasts Sunday night I showed how far behind the average we are in terms of temperature. For the month of December, we were 2.2 degrees below average. This month, we are 3.8 degrees below average so far. You may remember the forecast from NOAA and from Accuweather indicated above average temperatures for this winter. You can also watch Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi's prediction by clicking "winter forecast" in the white bar above. The reasoning behind this was a strong La Nina. While that is occurring, there may be other factors dominating our weather. It's only the middle of January so a big flip to warm could still take place in February. I'm not a big believer in long term forecasts. The meteorologist who specialize in this do tremendous work, but it's extremely difficult trying to predict the weather several months down the road.
]Stay with us here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, I'll keep you updated with the latest!
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This system coming in poses different forecast challenges compared to the big Sunday snow a week ago. We're going to be dealing with a variety of precipitation across Arkansas and it all depends on the depth of the cold air and how far south the intrusion sets up. I still firmly believe the northern portion of the state sees the worst of it. There are two key points I need to hit on: the system will not have heavy precipitation like the last storm did and it's a quick mover. As you will see in the video blog discussion, there is much to consider when trying to pin down the details and it will be a challenge for forecasters to stay one step ahead of the models. Check it out!
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| Prelim. Snowfall potential for Thursday. |
I'll have more later this morning.
3:30 PM Monday Update... WOW, the blog is getting very active again with the possibilities for winter weather. I encourage you to watch the video discussion below if you haven't. I really lay out the situation and what could go wrong with the forecast. I have looked at the data this afternoon and I have no changes. This will be a light and quick event, but enough to cause travel headaches, especially across northern Arkansas.
The European model has two more winter weather possibilities over the next 10 days. Besides the one Thursday, there is some concern Monday (January 24th) and again Thursday (January 27th). We're talking about the long term here so don't get too excited, but at least we have something to watch for awhile. It's rare in Arkansas to get hit after hit after hit with winter weather events, but if you get locked into a pattern, anything can happen. As my bio says on twitter... "following this crazy Arkansas weather". There's nothing normal about it and that's what makes us the weather geeks we are!
During the 10 o'clock newscasts Sunday night I showed how far behind the average we are in terms of temperature. For the month of December, we were 2.2 degrees below average. This month, we are 3.8 degrees below average so far. You may remember the forecast from NOAA and from Accuweather indicated above average temperatures for this winter. You can also watch Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi's prediction by clicking "winter forecast" in the white bar above. The reasoning behind this was a strong La Nina. While that is occurring, there may be other factors dominating our weather. It's only the middle of January so a big flip to warm could still take place in February. I'm not a big believer in long term forecasts. The meteorologist who specialize in this do tremendous work, but it's extremely difficult trying to predict the weather several months down the road.
]Stay with us here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, I'll keep you updated with the latest!
________________________________________________________________________
This system coming in poses different forecast challenges compared to the big Sunday snow a week ago. We're going to be dealing with a variety of precipitation across Arkansas and it all depends on the depth of the cold air and how far south the intrusion sets up. I still firmly believe the northern portion of the state sees the worst of it. There are two key points I need to hit on: the system will not have heavy precipitation like the last storm did and it's a quick mover. As you will see in the video blog discussion, there is much to consider when trying to pin down the details and it will be a challenge for forecasters to stay one step ahead of the models. Check it out!
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| 9 AM Thursday GFS. Mostly Rain with frozen precip. north |
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| Noon Thursday. Rain with frozen precip still across the north |
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| Colder air moves south with snow across the NW portions of the state at 3 PM |
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| The rain begins to transition to frozen precipitation for the northern 1/2 of the state at 6 PM |
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| All precipitation changes to snow before ending by 9 PM Thursday (Light) |
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Video Blog Discussion
8:30 PM Sunday Update... I will have a full update Monday dealing with the wintry weather possibilities as we go into Thursday. Right now, I really think this is a north Arkansas snow/ice event with rain elsewhere. There is a chance it eventually does turn over to some snow before ending across central sections, but it's too early to pinpoint and detail specifics. There is one thing that concerns me. If low level arctic air gets involved, the models will underestimate it until the very last minute. We have seen this time and time again. This can change a rainy forecast into a wintry one with little notice. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but with a high pressure funneling in a northeast to east flow, that's something that much be watched. I'll have more Monday!
Friday, January 14, 2011
Video Blog Discussion January 14th, 2011
8:30 AM Saturday Update... I looked at the overnight Euro and the storm is gone. I'll have a full update later today. To be honest, I love the snow, but don't like the ice. More later...
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
All Aboard The Arctic Express
Below is a video montage that I hope captures the excitement snow-megeddon brought us. ENJOY!
9 AM Thursday Update... The 15 year old record stands at the Little Rock airport. Our low temperature dropped to 16 degrees, but many outlying areas did drop into the single digits. The coldest I could find was Arkadelphia at 3 degrees. The small towns will report later this morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see some below zero temperatures. I'll have them for you here!
Remember, for single digit lows at the airport, you need the perfect combo of clear skies, no wind, and snow cover. While there were a few high clouds last night, I think the main reason was the wind. It stayed out of the north from 3-7 mph. That was enough to keep the 15 year record going. I'll have more later this morning...
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We are still on track for the coldest morning in this arctic attack Thursday. It's even possible for single digits which would make it the first time in 15 years in Little Rock if we can officially drop to 9 degrees. I talk about the three ingredients for single digit temperatures: clouds, wind, and snow cover. There will be a few high could moving through the state tonight, but the latest data I looked at shows they are quick moving and should only affect southern Arkansas. The winds will be out of the north Thursday morning from 1-3 mph and we obviously have snow cover. It's not an absolutely perfect set up, but it COULD be enough for 9 degrees at the Little Rock airport. I fully expect outlying areas to get into the 5-9 degree range. The GFS shows 12 degrees while the NAM says 15. Many times, the computers don't take into account the snow cover so these might be too warm. It will be close and fun to watch.
While this is frigid, it's not going to be record breaking. The record Thursday AM is 3 degrees set in 1912. North Little Rock's record is 13 in 1997 so they could be in that territory.
Don't forget to send your low temperature and location in the comment section.
9 AM Thursday Update... The 15 year old record stands at the Little Rock airport. Our low temperature dropped to 16 degrees, but many outlying areas did drop into the single digits. The coldest I could find was Arkadelphia at 3 degrees. The small towns will report later this morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see some below zero temperatures. I'll have them for you here!
Remember, for single digit lows at the airport, you need the perfect combo of clear skies, no wind, and snow cover. While there were a few high clouds last night, I think the main reason was the wind. It stayed out of the north from 3-7 mph. That was enough to keep the 15 year record going. I'll have more later this morning...
______________________________________________________________________
We are still on track for the coldest morning in this arctic attack Thursday. It's even possible for single digits which would make it the first time in 15 years in Little Rock if we can officially drop to 9 degrees. I talk about the three ingredients for single digit temperatures: clouds, wind, and snow cover. There will be a few high could moving through the state tonight, but the latest data I looked at shows they are quick moving and should only affect southern Arkansas. The winds will be out of the north Thursday morning from 1-3 mph and we obviously have snow cover. It's not an absolutely perfect set up, but it COULD be enough for 9 degrees at the Little Rock airport. I fully expect outlying areas to get into the 5-9 degree range. The GFS shows 12 degrees while the NAM says 15. Many times, the computers don't take into account the snow cover so these might be too warm. It will be close and fun to watch.
While this is frigid, it's not going to be record breaking. The record Thursday AM is 3 degrees set in 1912. North Little Rock's record is 13 in 1997 so they could be in that territory.
Don't forget to send your low temperature and location in the comment section.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Arctic Attack... Coldest Night in 15 Years?
6:00 PM Tuesday Update... We literally received thousands upon thousands of pictures. I tried my hardest to go through all of them. Below is a video montage that I hope captures the excitement snow-megeddon brought us. ENJOY!
1:30 PM Tuesday update... As the clouds have cleared out, you can clearly see the snow with the visible satellite imagery. This is a snapshot from thousands of miles in space. Look at the snow on the ground in northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. The little black holes in that white area are lakes. You can see the snow in eastern Arkansas as well and the rivers running through that area of the state look black. The white river is visible as it runs towards the Mississippi. There are also snow fields in northern Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. This is important because our winds are coming from that direction. This will help keep temperatures cold as long as there is a northerly component to the wind going over those snow fields. Most of what you see in MS, AL, and TN are clouds. I thought this was interesting and wanted to share it with you.
We're about to plunge into an even deeper freeze throughout the state and it's possible to reach levels not seen in Little Rock since the mid 1990s. To be specific, the last time Little Rock dropped to single digit lows was Feb. 4, 1996. We hit 5 degrees that morning.
More on that in a little bit. Once again, we all need to thanks the WeatherNinja and Eric Hopkins for the live streaming video all day Sunday. They put hundreds of miles on their car and drove for more than 16 hours to bring us LIVE streaming video of the snow moving into the state.
I took my son Blake sledding for the first time. I have to admit, I felt like a kid again. He absolutely loved it and I wanted to share a video with you, then we'll talk about the cold air.
Remember, what I have always said about the necessary ingredients for single digit lows at the Little Rock airport. You need clear skies, no wind, and snow cover. By Wednesday morning, we'll have 2 out of 3: clear skies and snow cover. The winds should stay up just enough to allow temperatures to bottom out around 12-15 degrees. Outlying areas COULD drop into the single digits. Wind chill values will be brutal and a wind chill advisory is in effect for northern Arkansas.
Thursday morning is the time to watch for single digit lows. It's possible to have all three ingredients. As of Tuesday morning, the two major short term computer models show a low of 12 and 16 degrees. It will be close. Have your thermometers ready and report your lows and location in the comment section. STAY WARM AND SAFE EVERYONE!
1:30 PM Tuesday update... As the clouds have cleared out, you can clearly see the snow with the visible satellite imagery. This is a snapshot from thousands of miles in space. Look at the snow on the ground in northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. The little black holes in that white area are lakes. You can see the snow in eastern Arkansas as well and the rivers running through that area of the state look black. The white river is visible as it runs towards the Mississippi. There are also snow fields in northern Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. This is important because our winds are coming from that direction. This will help keep temperatures cold as long as there is a northerly component to the wind going over those snow fields. Most of what you see in MS, AL, and TN are clouds. I thought this was interesting and wanted to share it with you.
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| Visible Satellite imagery Tuesday |
We're about to plunge into an even deeper freeze throughout the state and it's possible to reach levels not seen in Little Rock since the mid 1990s. To be specific, the last time Little Rock dropped to single digit lows was Feb. 4, 1996. We hit 5 degrees that morning.
More on that in a little bit. Once again, we all need to thanks the WeatherNinja and Eric Hopkins for the live streaming video all day Sunday. They put hundreds of miles on their car and drove for more than 16 hours to bring us LIVE streaming video of the snow moving into the state.
I took my son Blake sledding for the first time. I have to admit, I felt like a kid again. He absolutely loved it and I wanted to share a video with you, then we'll talk about the cold air.
Remember, what I have always said about the necessary ingredients for single digit lows at the Little Rock airport. You need clear skies, no wind, and snow cover. By Wednesday morning, we'll have 2 out of 3: clear skies and snow cover. The winds should stay up just enough to allow temperatures to bottom out around 12-15 degrees. Outlying areas COULD drop into the single digits. Wind chill values will be brutal and a wind chill advisory is in effect for northern Arkansas.
Thursday morning is the time to watch for single digit lows. It's possible to have all three ingredients. As of Tuesday morning, the two major short term computer models show a low of 12 and 16 degrees. It will be close. Have your thermometers ready and report your lows and location in the comment section. STAY WARM AND SAFE EVERYONE!
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Snow-Megeddon Wrap Up
SNOW TIME LAPSE... this was put together by my wife.
The latest and most advanced meteorological instrument ever. It's the "YAK-OMETER".
It measure temperature and snow depth at the same time! LOL
A few of my favorite snow pics so far...
Thanks everyone for an extremely fun day here on the Arkansas Weather Blog. A BIG thanks to the WeatherNinja and his partner chaser Eric Hopkins. I didn't mention his name on the news tonight and feel horrible. Eric, THANKS.
These two provided everyone with LIVE streaming video all day long. Think about the miles they drove and the conditions they did it in. Glad everyone made it home ok.
It appears the system that moved through went a bit further north and brought heavy amounts of snow to central and southern Arkansas. Amounts were as high as 8 inches in Malvern to 7'' in Arkadelphia. I estimate about 5'' here in West Little Rock. It feels so good to nail a forecast like that. It wasn't perfect, but when you're dealing with mother nature, it's tough.
Everyone, have a great time playing in the snow Monday and stay safe. Thanks for making the Arkansas Weather Blog your ticket to BIG weather events!
I will have a new blog post Monday and a special treat for everyone soon.
Here are some more snow totals...
MALVERN 8.0
ARKADELPHIA 7.0
ALEXANDER 6.0
MABELVALE 6.0
HASKELL 6.0
CADDO VALLEY 6.0
GURDON 6.0
BISMARK 5.0
BRYANT 5.0
SHERWOOD 5.0
NORTH LITTLE ROCK 4.0 - 5.0
OAK GROVE 4.2
AUSTIN 4.0
WEST LITTLE ROCK 4.0
QUEEN WILHELMINA STATE PARK 4.0
MT. IDA 4.0
MALVERN 3.0
JACKSONVILLE 3.0
STEPROCK 3.0
MONTICELLO 2.0 - 3.0
PINE BLUFF 2.0
HOT SPRINGS 2.0
WEST LITTLE ROCK 1.5
DEWITT 1.5
SEARCY 1.0
The latest and most advanced meteorological instrument ever. It's the "YAK-OMETER".
It measure temperature and snow depth at the same time! LOL
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| The "Yak-ometer" |
A few of my favorite snow pics so far...
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| Chad Gardner's Dog |
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| WxGuru2u and his wife |
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| I think he likes the snow |
These two provided everyone with LIVE streaming video all day long. Think about the miles they drove and the conditions they did it in. Glad everyone made it home ok.
It appears the system that moved through went a bit further north and brought heavy amounts of snow to central and southern Arkansas. Amounts were as high as 8 inches in Malvern to 7'' in Arkadelphia. I estimate about 5'' here in West Little Rock. It feels so good to nail a forecast like that. It wasn't perfect, but when you're dealing with mother nature, it's tough.
Everyone, have a great time playing in the snow Monday and stay safe. Thanks for making the Arkansas Weather Blog your ticket to BIG weather events!
I will have a new blog post Monday and a special treat for everyone soon.
Here are some more snow totals...
MALVERN 8.0
ARKADELPHIA 7.0
ALEXANDER 6.0
MABELVALE 6.0
HASKELL 6.0
CADDO VALLEY 6.0
GURDON 6.0
BISMARK 5.0
BRYANT 5.0
SHERWOOD 5.0
NORTH LITTLE ROCK 4.0 - 5.0
OAK GROVE 4.2
AUSTIN 4.0
WEST LITTLE ROCK 4.0
QUEEN WILHELMINA STATE PARK 4.0
MT. IDA 4.0
MALVERN 3.0
JACKSONVILLE 3.0
STEPROCK 3.0
MONTICELLO 2.0 - 3.0
PINE BLUFF 2.0
HOT SPRINGS 2.0
WEST LITTLE ROCK 1.5
DEWITT 1.5
SEARCY 1.0
Saturday, January 08, 2011
"Snow-Mageddon" Post #2
11 PM Saturday Update... The evening data continues to show a south Arkansas snow with a good area of 2-4'' across much of central and southern Arkansas. There will be a swath of higher amounts across southwest, south central, and east central areas.
We have a big day planned on the blog Sunday tracking this snow.
8:15 PM Saturday Update... The NAM is looking more like the GFS and going with heavy amounts of snow across the south. Remember, it's only one piece of the weather puzzle. This is almost an extreme scenario. The map below ends Monday at midnight. CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE
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| 00Z NAM POSSIBLE SNOW DEPTH BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY |
5:40 PM Saturday Update... I know there are a ton of you almost nervous about the snow storm. You want it to happen, but your worried it won't. While there area still disagreements among two of the major models, they do agree it will snow. The afternoon NAM says 1.6'' while the GFS has about 5''. So you can see why our 2-4'' forecast looks good based on this data. The European model even shows a bit more with .6'' of water. That would equate to a few inches of snow. Timing is also an issue. Right now the NAM is the slowest while the GFS is faster bringing in the precipitation. I suspect it will arrive in central Arkansas around 3 PM to 6 PM and really start to accumulate from 6 to midnight Sunday. All of this is subject to change of course. Below you will see the snowfall projections for Sunday and Sunday night. The graphic below that shows POSSIBLE snowfall with the second wave of moisture which arrives Monday afternoon and evening. This will mainly affect northern Arkansas with a dusting to one inch. The third graphic below shows the afternoon run of the NAM and it's 84 hour snowfall forecast.
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| Possible Snow Totals. A dusting to one inch will be possible across the north |
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| POSSIBLE totals Monday afternoon with the second wave of moisture |
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| 18Z NAM |
Even though we are within 24 hours of the storm, there are still uncertainties. The morning run of the NAM shows 2.3 inches for Little Rock while the GFS shows 4.6 inches. Both models agree the highest amounts will be across southern Arkansas. A second round of LIGHTER snow will move through northern Arkansas Monday afternoon and night. There could easily be enough to whiten up the ground there. Right now, it appears any accumulation with the second wave in central Arkansas will be under 1/2''. After that, very cold air will settle into the state with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits and teens.
Remember, to send your pictures to us Sunday and Monday to photo@katv.com. Send your best one or two and BE CREATIVE. Also, please make the file sizes small and under 1 MB. We'll show a few on the air and on line.
We have a BIG day planned on the weather blog Sunday. Please check us out and stay with us for numerous updates through the weekend. Enjoy the video below and leave your thoughts in the comment section.
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| 12Z GFS showing 120 hour snow totals |
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| 12Z GFS sleet totals |
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| 12Z GFS Freezing Rain |
Friday, January 07, 2011
"Snow-Mageddon" ????
9:45 AM Saturday Update... new blog post this afternoon. In the meantime, here's the data from the 12Z NAM. Highest snow totals across the south...
7:30 AM Saturday Update... I will start a new post late this morning or into the afternoon. I feel very confident this is still a south Arkansas snowstorm. It's the northward extent I still question due to dry low level air "zapping" precipitation on the northern fringe. It's the NAM model which I keep hoping will come more in line with the GFS. The latest version of the Euro is still a big snow for most of central and southern sections of the state. As of Saturday morning, the timing of this looks like mid to late afternoon for the onset Sunday across southern Arkansas. It should move into central areas late Sunday afternoon into the evening. Remember, this too is not set in stone.
We have a lot of plans for the blog Sunday which will cover the storm from A to Z.
Thanks everyone for getting your information here. You can always contribute in the comment section and share your thoughts. Also, send snow pictures to photo@katv.com. GET CREATIVE! We'll share a few on the air and on line.
9:15 PM Friday Update... The new NAM is drier and delays the onset of precip. in central Arkansas. It shows the best chance Sunday night into Monday morning with 2 inches or less for the Little Rock area. On the flip side, the 18Z GFS shows significant snow for central and southern Arkansas beginning Sunday afternoon. Even though we are within 48 hours of the storm, there are differences in the data that must be sorted out. As you read the 4:30 post below, you can see how I outline some of the worries and the things that could limit the snowfall. For some reason today as I thought about the forecast, I kept thinking about dry air in the lower levels "zapping" precipitation. This will prevent northern Arkansas from getting a good snow, but how far south will this occur? How about the other side of the equation? What if the storm tracks further north and we get more than expected?
There is so much to watch this weekend! I like the forecast we put out on the air tonight. With all the available data, the snowfall accumulation map Ned and I put together is, at this point, the most likely scenario. This can always change.
Thanks everyone for reading the blog and getting your in depth weather here. For all of you snow lovers out there, think positive thoughts. Read Amy's post in the comment section. Hopefully, we'll all be able to look out our windows Sunday evening and enjoy a fresh blanket of fluffy snow.
4:30 PM Friday Update... Ned and I were talking in the weather center about what COULD go wrong with the forecast. We both agree the worst case scenario (for snow lovers) is heavy rainfall wrapping up around the low along the Gulf coast robbing the moisture transport to the north. One more thing which could go wrong... very dry air from the north could "zap" moisture on the northern fringe. If the low goes any further south, this could decrease snow amounts on the northern fringe. While this is not likely to happen, it is within the realm of possibilities. With that said, there's a much greater chance for significant snowfall Sunday. Here's the latest run of the GFS which just came out this afternoon. It shows the highest amount of snowfall along the I-30 corridor in SW Arkansas with 3-5'' there and areas to the east. The amounts lessen the further north you go. This has been a very consistent trend with this model . More updates later and all throughout the weekend.
Noon Friday Update... check out the video blog discussion and the NEW maps below showing sleet and freezing rain possibilities with the new data...
10:30 AM Friday Update... The 12Z GFS is in and snowfall accumulations look highest across the southern 1/2 of the state including Little Rock. It indicates significant accumulation along the I-30 corridor from Texarkana to just SW of Little Rock. This areas extends eastward towards Pine Bluff, Fordyce, and Star City. This model indicates 3-6 inches or slightly more in that area. NOT A FORECAST, just one piece of the weather puzzle.
10 AM Friday Update... Here's a closer look at the 12Z NAM showing highest amounts across southern Arkansas with just a dusting to 2'' across central sections. This model has been erratic and should be more reliable along with the GFS later today or Saturday as the storm moves out of the Pacific Ocean and into the western United States.
9 AM Friday Update... the latest NAM cuts back on snowfall totals drastically. This model has been very erratic which means it's less reliable at this point.
The title of this post might be too strong, but I like the way it sounds. We're now within 60 hours of the onset of wintry weather in Arkansas so let's start talking about accumulations. The only change I see from yesterdays data is a chance for some sleet across southern Arkansas before changing to all snow. Typically, we think of northern Arkansas who ALWAYS receives the heaviest snow, but this time will be different. The highest amounts will be found across southern and central Arkansas with lessening totals the further north you live. This has to do with the track of the low pressure at the surface/aloft and the available moisture.
The data below is from all of the major models used in the meteorological world. Even with all this information, this forecast is STILL NOT SET IN STONE. The track of the storm along with available moisture can drastically change this forecast. But for fun, here's what the models show. I will continue to update throughout the day here on the blog and on twitter.
 |
| 12Z NAM |
We have a lot of plans for the blog Sunday which will cover the storm from A to Z.
Thanks everyone for getting your information here. You can always contribute in the comment section and share your thoughts. Also, send snow pictures to photo@katv.com. GET CREATIVE! We'll share a few on the air and on line.
 |
| PRELIMINARY snowfall forecast |
9:15 PM Friday Update... The new NAM is drier and delays the onset of precip. in central Arkansas. It shows the best chance Sunday night into Monday morning with 2 inches or less for the Little Rock area. On the flip side, the 18Z GFS shows significant snow for central and southern Arkansas beginning Sunday afternoon. Even though we are within 48 hours of the storm, there are differences in the data that must be sorted out. As you read the 4:30 post below, you can see how I outline some of the worries and the things that could limit the snowfall. For some reason today as I thought about the forecast, I kept thinking about dry air in the lower levels "zapping" precipitation. This will prevent northern Arkansas from getting a good snow, but how far south will this occur? How about the other side of the equation? What if the storm tracks further north and we get more than expected?
There is so much to watch this weekend! I like the forecast we put out on the air tonight. With all the available data, the snowfall accumulation map Ned and I put together is, at this point, the most likely scenario. This can always change.
Thanks everyone for reading the blog and getting your in depth weather here. For all of you snow lovers out there, think positive thoughts. Read Amy's post in the comment section. Hopefully, we'll all be able to look out our windows Sunday evening and enjoy a fresh blanket of fluffy snow.
4:30 PM Friday Update... Ned and I were talking in the weather center about what COULD go wrong with the forecast. We both agree the worst case scenario (for snow lovers) is heavy rainfall wrapping up around the low along the Gulf coast robbing the moisture transport to the north. One more thing which could go wrong... very dry air from the north could "zap" moisture on the northern fringe. If the low goes any further south, this could decrease snow amounts on the northern fringe. While this is not likely to happen, it is within the realm of possibilities. With that said, there's a much greater chance for significant snowfall Sunday. Here's the latest run of the GFS which just came out this afternoon. It shows the highest amount of snowfall along the I-30 corridor in SW Arkansas with 3-5'' there and areas to the east. The amounts lessen the further north you go. This has been a very consistent trend with this model . More updates later and all throughout the weekend.
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| 18Z GFS Friday |
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| 12Z GFS Snow accumulations |
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| 12Z GFS SLEET accumulations |
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| 12Z GFS FREEZING RAIN |
10:30 AM Friday Update... The 12Z GFS is in and snowfall accumulations look highest across the southern 1/2 of the state including Little Rock. It indicates significant accumulation along the I-30 corridor from Texarkana to just SW of Little Rock. This areas extends eastward towards Pine Bluff, Fordyce, and Star City. This model indicates 3-6 inches or slightly more in that area. NOT A FORECAST, just one piece of the weather puzzle.
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| Friday 12Z GFS |
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| Closer look at 12Z NAM Friday |
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| 12Z NAM Friday |
The data below is from all of the major models used in the meteorological world. Even with all this information, this forecast is STILL NOT SET IN STONE. The track of the storm along with available moisture can drastically change this forecast. But for fun, here's what the models show. I will continue to update throughout the day here on the blog and on twitter.
 |
| 6Z GFS |
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| 6Z NAM |
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| 00Z GFS |
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| 00Z NAM |
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| 00Z GEM |
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| 00Z Euro |
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