Record Breaking Heat Possible

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

It's looking like the beginning of May could feel like the beginning of June.  The unseasonably warm weather from winter and spring should roll on for at least a week as a ridge of high pressure brings a summer like pattern.  By the end of the 7 day period, we'll be getting closer to the end of our primary severe weather season.  Right now, it appears Arkansas has escaped some major outbreaks this season, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic and hope we can make it through the month without any significant severe weather.

Starting Tuesday, we will challenge daily record highs.  It's going to be difficult to break them, but it will be close.  As we go into next weekend, Toad Suck Daze should be warm and humid with low rain chances.  The festival has not had it easy over the past few years with plenty of rainfall, but this year may finally break that streak!

After this week, there are signs the pattern may change and allow readings to drop to average or even below average.  Check out the maps below!

Also, participate in the poll to the right.  What do you consider "hot"?

Here are the record high temperatures for Little Rock Tuesday through Sunday.  It looks like May of 1952 was a hot one doesn't it!!!  We'll challenge these records!

NOAA's 8-14 day outlook indicates cooler than average temperatures possible.

Cautiously Optimistic

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

If you remember one year ago this week, Arkansas dealt with several rounds of severe weather and dozens of tornadoes.  We also lost 12 of our fellow Arkansans due to those storms.  We ended 2011 as the 4th most active year for tornadoes in recorded weather history with 75.

Fast forward to 2012 and it has been a different story.  We started the severe weather season early on January 22nd with 7 tornadoes, but since then we have only had 2.  Our yearly average is 33 so we're well below with less than one month to go in our primary severe weather season.  The biggest story however is the fact NO ONE has died from a tornado this year in Arkansas.  This is why I'm cautiously optimistic.  We still have several hurdles to pass, but if we can make it to Dec. 31st without a fatality, it would be the first time since 2007 that has happened. 

Those hurdles are as follows...

1. We still have until mid May until our primary severe weather season winds down, but I don't see any major storm systems over the next few days.
2. Tropical storm season will crank up soon.  There are times when remnants of these storms can affect Arkansas and spawn tornadoes.  Examples of that: Rita in 2005 and Ike in 2008
3. The secondary severe weather season this fall into early winter.  This can be another active period with severe weather.

It's important to remember that tornadoes can occur at any time of the year and we must stay weather aware.  BUT LET'S MAKE OUR GOAL THIS YEAR AND EVERY YEAR TO KEEP ARKANSANS INFORMED AND NOT HAVE ANY DEATHS!!!!!

Roller Coaster Gets Stuck?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

Today marks 1 year since the Vilonia tornado.  There were many other communities affected as well on this horrible day.

Here's an email I received shortly after and video from the edge of the tornado.

"Just thanking everyone in the newsroom, especially Ned, Todd, Barry for the excellent coverage with the weather this week. I live in Vilonia and the tornado just hooked to the NW of us a few hundred feet. I set my video camera in the upstairs window and got to the closet with the family."


Vilonia Tornado from Scott Patrom on Vimeo.

Here's a radar image of the debris ball produced by the violent tornado.

Vilonia tornado 1 year ago, April 25th

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CHECK OUT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH LITTLE ROCK.  CLICK HERE.
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Just yesterday I posted about a wild swing in temperatures that appeared to be likely over the next week.  Well, now the models say, "nevermind".  I want to remind you that it's only Wednesday and much can change as we get closer to the weekend and beyond.   However, we must pay attention to what the models are saying and it looks like there is now a strong possibility the front gets hung up to the north keeping Arkansas in the "warm sector" and our rain chances will be kept to a minimum and mainly confined to northern Arkansas.  You just gotta love Arkansas weather, it changes quickly along with the data.

Check out the GFS comparisons below...

This was the GFS run from early Monday morning valid next Sunday morning.  The closed black line over Ohio is the surface low with a front extending south into northern AL and into northern LA.  The small black lines point to the direction from where the wind is coming from.  At the surface, it's all northwesterly over AR with cool temperatures advecting into the state.  This would have resulted in widespread 40s and 50s next Sunday morning.

Now this is the overnight run of the GFS Wednesday valid next Sunday morning.  The front is hung up to the north and stretches from west TX into southern Missouri eastward into Virginia.  The warm colors indicates lows Sunday morning in the 60s with humid conditions with a flow off the Gulf.  You can see the sharp temperature contrast associated with the front with the quick change in colors over a short distance to the north.  WHAT A BIG DIFFERENCE!

Click to enlarge.  Now the manual progs from the HPC indicates the front stalling this weekend over northern AR, then retreating to the north.

Another Temperature Roller Coaster

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

7:30 AM Wednesday Update... Hold on just one second, the models are now doing their flip flopping and keeping the front north of the state.  This would limit a big swing in temperatures and keep rain chances to a minimum and mainly confined to northern Arkansas.  What a big difference in just a could of days with the models.  Remember though, it's only Wednesday so we'll see how this plays out.

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On my twitter bio it says, "following this crazy Arkansas Weather".  Well here we are going into late April and it's feeling more like March. But wait and it may start to feel like May, then maybe a little April by next week.  Yes, we have another wild temperature roller coaster to deal with over the next week with some rain thrown in there as well.

Canadian high pressure, which brought us chilly overnight lows and cool daytime highs, will slip off to the east.  A return flow around it will get underway for the rest of the week.  It's going to be breezy as well.  A front will make a run at northern Arkansas late in the week, but will not make it so I think we'll stay mostly dry, very warm, and increasingly humid.  As a matter of fact, after lows in the 30s in some portions of Arkansas Monday and Tuesday morning, some places could approach 90 by the end of the week.  How's that for a roller coaster?

Beyond this week, the front may finally get a push into the state this weekend increasing our rain chances and dropping our temperatures back to "average" levels or slightly below average levels next week.

We have a big month in front of us, May.  I'm keeping my eye on the forecast for "Toad Suck".  Mother Nature has not been friendly to the festival in recent years.  It's too early to make a forecast, but the law of averages says we're due for a nice festival!

By the way, I'll throw this out there for you to think about.  You know how I feel about long range forecasting.  I think the science just isn't there yet.  Many talented meteorologists are advancing it to the best of their abilities.  What I'm saying is, take the following with a grain of salt.  Some of the VERY long range models show below average temperatures for much of the country next fall and winter.  There I said it!  Don't take it to the bank yet. LOL

Check out the maps below from the 06Z Tuesday run of the GFS

This is valid at 1AM Friday.  Look at the low over the CO and KS border.  There's a front extending eastward from it.  The black lines oriented from southwest to northeast across Arkansas indicates a strong southwesterly flow here at the surface.  The front is hung up to the north with very warm and humid conditions around here for late in the week.  Also, notice there's strong high pressure over Canada.  That's some chilly air up there!  SOME of that will try to cool us down a little next week.

The GFS valid next Sunday morning shows the front slipping to the south with some rain across Arkansas.  A cool east to northeasterly wind at the surface will develop as that high pressure moves to the south out of Canada.  So it appears by late in the weekend, after a warm spell, temperatures will settle back down again.

Click on this image to enlarge.  This is the evolution of the next few days as seen by the HPC and I agree with it.  You can see the front to the north on Friday, then a wave of low pressure shoots east and drags it into AR this weekend with rain chances.  Canadian high pressure settles in early next week for more cooler weather.

Arkansas Is Lucky So Far

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

7:45 PM Sunday update... On my facebook page, Kevin Martin, brought up an interesting point.  On January 22nd, we had 7 tornadoes.  At some point, someone will have to define "outbreak".  I don't consider that an outbreak, but others might.
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I don't want to talk too soon.  One storm system can completely change this, but so far, we have dodged a bullet when it comes to tornado outbreaks this year.  Many places around us have had a horrible spring with deadly tornadoes.  So far, Arkansas has had 9 and the yearly average is 33.  No one in Arkansas has died this year as a result of tornadoes as well.  Let's keep it that way!!!!!!

We have about a month left in our primary tornado season, then it winds down rapidly.  Remember though, tornadoes can happen ANY month of the year.  Are we out of the woods when May is over? No.  The tropical season will start up soon and any remnants that track towards Arkansas can spawn tornadoes.  Also, we have a secondary tornado season which gets underway in late fall into early winter.  Let's hope we stay below average this year.  Last year was horrible for Arkansans, we deserve a break.

For more information, the National Weather Service in North Little Rock has more great information.  CLICK HERE TO READ IT!

We Interrupt This Program

I'm going to steal a page out of Ryan Vaughan's book (Chief Meteorologist at KAIT in Jonesboro).  He has a fantastic blog, not award winning (just joking Ryan), but great blog and you should check it out sometime.  CLICK HERE

Anyway, Ryan says sometimes he likes to get off the subject of weather and talk about family.  Since there's really not much going on over the next few days, I wanted to share with you a few pictures of my boys.  There are NO words available to describe how proud I am of them.  Even when tantrums are thrown, I love them like crazy.  Blake will be 3 in July and Preston is going on 4 months now.  Blake has such a wonderful personality and I can see Preston's developing now.  I'm a stay at home dad for a couple days a week and it's not the easiest thing in the world, but Blake is at a point where he actually helps me with Preston.  Between those 2 and our dog, it can get interesting around here, but fun.

This weekend Preston George will be baptized.  He is named after my dad, George, who died several years ago.  Saturday would have been my dad's 74th birthday.  What better way to celebrate it than with Preston's baptism!?  I'm really looking forward to having the whole family together.

Enjoy the pictures.  I'll return to the weather soon, but the next several days will be nice and quiet.

Blake and Preston.  Blake is loving having a lil bro to take care of!

Preston is developing a great personality and this picture captures some of it!

More Preston smiling and enjoying life!

Blake loves posing for pictures!

Cool And Wet Weather Ahead

TO WATCH THE WEATHERNINJA'S STORM CHASE IN KANSAS, CLICK ON NINJA'S CORNER ABOVE!  HE SAW 4 TORNADOES!

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I've had a chance to relax after last Sunday.  As we thought, it wasn't going to be anything like the Plains saw on Saturday.  However, the Storm Prediction Center decided to blanket the state with tornado watches for the majority of the day.  That meant going into work and monitoring the radar all day.  That's what we do this time of year though and being in Arkansas we're use to it!

The WeatherNinja will post pictures and video of his tornado chase Saturday in Kansas.  He saw 5 tornadoes!!!!!  I have seen some of the pics and video and it's truly amazing what he captured.  He was within 2 miles of the Wichita, KS tornado.  He sent me a clip of the video and you could hear the roar of the twister.  Look for that soon!

Also, I'll be asking for summer weather contest entries soon so stay tuned for that.

There was only 1 confirmed tornado near Morganton in southern Van Buren county.  The twister was 300 yards wide and tore a path for 2.3 miles. Our state tornado total for 2012 is up to 9 and the average is 33.  Other than that , there was some isolated thunderstorm wind damage and several thousand lost power due to the storms.

I think we'll have clear sailing until late this week when another strong area of low pressure brings unsettled weather.   This does not look like a significant severe event, but we'll have some rain and storms followed by some cool air.  Highs this weekend will be in the 60s and maybe low 70s with nighttime temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Check out the maps below based off the 00Z GFS

At 500 mb early Sat. AM, we have yet another closed low located across east Texas.  However, the location of this low is not favorable for significant severe weather in AR. We could see a few strong storms though.  I'll continue to watch it though for any changes.  This area of low pressure will bring cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions.

Early Saturday morning, the areas of green shows forecast rain amounts over the previous 3 hours.  There's quite a bit of shower activity with heavy rains across Texas according to this one model. 

By late Saturday, low pressure forms across the northern Gulf.  That's very far south for this time of year.  At the surface, cool northerly winds are getting drawn through AR into that low.  There will still be a few showers and clouds are likely to stay in place.   This model solution would bring a cloudy and cool day with highs only in the 60s.

By late Monday, the low opens and moves to the east.  This is looking in the upper levels.  Check out the ridging across the Rockies.  We're on the east side of that which means a northwesterly flow aloft will likely keep our weather cool.

Late Tuesday, it's more of the same.  Quiet.  I like that.  The ridge over the Rockies moves a little to the east.  Still a mostly dry and cool pattern.

By the end of next week, the GFS begins to break the ridge down and moves it to the east.  This may bring us back to an unsettled pattern, but it's way down the road.

Tracking Severe Storms Sunday

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

Unfortunately, the high risk over the plains Saturday verified and there was a very significant tornado outbreak.  When I last checked the Storm Prediction Center website, there were more than 120 reports of tornadoes and almost 400 reports of severe weather.  Our own Channel 7 storm chaser, Michael Hook (The WeatherNinja), spent the day in Kansas and witnessed 5 tornadoes and drove more than 1000 miles.  When he gets back, he'll post all his pictures and video.

As I have said, the impact here in Arkansas will not be as severe as over the plains, but I don't want to downplay this system completely.  Severe thunderstorms can kill and everyone should pay attention to the weather today.  The main threat will be wind as a squall line strengthens throughout the day.  Some of these storms may produce hail as well.  The tornado threat is there, but it's low.  As I mentioned here yesterday morning, if any storms form ahead of the main line, they could produce a tornado.  Also, if the surface winds start to back out of the southeast ahead of the line, that would enhance the chance for the storms to rotate.  Again, this threat is on the low end, BUT IT MUST BE WATCHED!

Here are a few maps below showing the timing of the line of storms.

The HRRR model shows the line of storms moving into central Arkansas late this afternoon.  Probably after 3-4 PM and closer to 6 PM.

The high res NAM shows the same thing with the showers and storms entering central Arkansas late this afternoon around 4-7 PM.

By 1AM, the area of rain and storms will be located across eastern AR and the severe threat will more than likely start to decrease.

ALL of Arkansas is under a slight risk for severe weather

Chasing In Tornado Alley and Our Sunday Storms

Ninja's "Chase Pod" in tornado alley

I continue to expect a line of storms to affect the state Sunday afternoon and evening.  In my previous blog post, I expressed concern about the front slowing down once it was in Arkansas.  I thought there was the possibility storms could regenerate across southeastern Arkansas Monday.  At one time, there was model support for that idea, but now most agree this line will move rapidly through the state and most of it should come to an end by early Monday morning.

As I have said, the worst of this outbreak will be across the plains of tornado alley.  The storms will fire late Saturday out there and eventually organize into a squall line.  I fully expect those storms to remain organized and march across Arkansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

Here are my concerns... The biggest threat with a line like this will be wind damage.  Some hail may also be possible.  I know many are wondering about tornadoes.  That threat will exist, but it will be a low threat.  We can't rule out an isolated tornado and I'll explain.

If any storms form ahead of the main line, those may be able to rotate.  Also, I'll be watching the winds at the surface carefully.  If they begin to veer more out of the southeast, this COULD enhance the tornado potential.  This creates more spin with height.  Sometimes small, mesoscale waves of low pressure can form along the front which helps promote this backing of the wind.  Like I said, the tornado threat is low, but it can't be ruled out.  The main threat will be high winds and some hail.  Also, heavy rainfall could bring localized flooding.

Check out the maps below for timing...

This is simulated radar from the NAM valid at 4 PM Sunday.  Look at the line of storms moving into central Arkansas.  Some of these could be severe.

By 7 PM, the line is moving through central Arkansas into eastern areas of the state.  Wind and hail will be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.

This is the line at 1 AM Monday morning, it shows some weakening and is beginning to push across the Mississippi River.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of Arkansas under a slight risk for severe weather Sunday.

The SPC has most of the state in an area outlined with "30%".  This means there's a 30% of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.

Stormy Sunday Could Roll Into Monday

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

It's going to be a busy weekend for severe weather initially across the plains, then Arkansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

The WeatherNinja will travel to Oklahoma Friday and chase this weekend.  He will stream his live video here so check back.  His chase team will start somewhere within the high risk area in northern Oklahoma, but specifics are still to be determined.  I may open the chat room as well so you can interact and watch his chase.

These storms will move into Arkansas, but hopefully in a weakened state since instability will lessen and shear shouldn't be as high either.  The worst from this storm system will be over the plains of Oklahoma and Kansas.  However, I still think there's a strong possibility for a line of storms with wind and hail here in the Natural State.  An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.  The timing of this is in question as well.  The NAM wants to slow it down once it's in Arkansas while the GFS speeds it up.  I'll explain in the maps below.

By 1PM Sunday, the GFS shows an axis of instability through western AR northward.  This will be enough to produce storms, but it's not extreme instability.  Hopefully clouds and rain will limit this potential

By Sunday at 7 PM, the instability is located across the eastern half of the state and are definitely high enough to keep a line of storms strong to severe.

This shows the lifted index and the surface pressure by Monday morning.  The low is over the Great Lakes with the front pushing along the Mississippi River.  This is a faster solution compared to the NAM.

The NAM has the front entering central AR Monday AM at 7.  Any heating ahead of the front could produce more strong to severe storms across the east through Monday morning and afternoon.  Again, this is the slower solution compared to the GFS.  You can see the axis of elevated lifted index levels along and ahead of the front.

The index which combines shear and instability called the EHI shows elevated values late Sunday across western Arkansas.  This means there will be a chance for these storms to not only be severe, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

The NAM simulated radar shows the line of storms pushing into western Arkansas Sunday afternoon around 1 PM.  This line will have the potential to produce wind and hail along with the threat for isolated tornadoes.

The SPC has outlined much of AR under a slight risk for severe weather Sunday.  Again, the worst of this will be over the plains, but we'll have to watch for some rough weather here as well.

Taxes & Severe Weather... You May Have to Deal With Both Next Week

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

For all of you late filers out there, you may have one eye on your 1040 and another on the sky.  A round of rough weather is definitely possible Sunday and Monday. 

As a new storm system approaches, strong southerly winds will pump warm and moist air into Arkansas starting Friday into the weekend.  Say goodbye to these cool overnight lows!  This will set the stage for a round of locally heavy rain and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday.  I'm going to key on the possibility this comes in two stages for Arkansas.  I think strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will move into western Arkansas late Sunday, but weaken during the overnight hour.  The severe potential will decrease, but still exist.  Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be possible.  Once the line pushes further to the east Monday morning, southeast Arkansas may destabilize enough to strengthen the storms Monday afternoon. Below are my latest thoughts based on the newest model guidance.

The GFS late Sunday indicates instability levels high enough to support strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma in to western Arkansas as the front approaches.

By 1 AM Monday, there's still some instability, but it has decreased.  As the line moves into Arkansas overnight, the severe threat will exist, but diminish somewhat.  Heavy rain could be an issue at this time.

By early afternoon Monday, the GFS shows instability levels on the increase once again as the front moves into southeast Arkansas.  This is primarily due to solar heating.  The heavy rain threat will continue through the duration of the event.

The Storm Prediction Center shows the potential for severe weather late Sunday across eastern OK into western AR

VERY Active Weather Ahead. Storms & Flooding Possible

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

I hope everyone had a fantastic Easter with friends and family.  It was also my twin nieces birthday so we had 3 reasons to celebrate.  I put my diet on hold for a full day and now I'm back on the wagon.  By the way, if you're wondering about "Toning Todd" which started last November, I'm down about 20 pounds.  That's where I want to stay.

The weather this week is somewhat active, but nothing compared to the POTENTIAL for next week.  It's wayyyyyyyy too early to pinpoint any specifics, but I can see both a severe weather and flooding threat setting up and I'll explain with maps below.  Just as in previous storms this spring, the area of low pressure aloft may get cut off from the main flow.  If this happens, we'll not only have the potential for severe weather, but also flooding.  This depends very heavily on where everything sets up though.  The flow ahead of the low will be out of the southwest and a front at the surface will not be able to move much.  Several disturbances could move through that flow and produce multiple rounds of rain and storms.  This would bring a threat for flooding and severe weather.  Remember, we're almost a week away from this happening so a lot can change.  Check out the maps below.

This is the morning run of the GFS valid next Friday morning.  Notice the surface area of high pressure over the Carolina's.  There's an area of low pressure over the Dakota's as well.  The circulation around these two features will draw plenty of warm and moist air off the Gulf of Mexico.  The fuel for an active weather pattern will be in place.  The actual storm system is located over the western United States.  Notice the blue dashed lines over CA.  Those are low thickness values (cold air)  associated with the upper level area of low pressure.  The storm is still well west of Arkansas at this point.

This is late Sunday indicating the front draped over Texas into Oklahoma, then northeastward.  This is where the axis of heaviest rain is located according to this model.  This area will shift all over the place with each and every model run over the next several days!!!!!  While we don't trust ANY specifics, look at the pattern.  There will be the potential for multiple rounds of rain associated with the front and upper low.

The GFS valid next Monday morning shows the slow moving front over Arkansas with rain and some of it could be heavy according to this.  Each round of rain would have the potential to produce severe weather, especially where instability is highest. This would tend to favor afternoon and evenings when solar heating can get the atmosphere worked up.

This is the upper level pattern early next Monday morning.  The low across the southwest is opening up and making a move to the east.  Notice the black lines over Arkansas area oriented from the southwest to the northeast.  This southwesterly wind flow aloft will not allow the surface front to move much.  Disturbances ejecting out of the main low to the west would trigger multiple rounds of rain and storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the same areas to our west under a risk for some severe weather late this week into the weekend.  This is where the front will be positioned with disturbances causing trouble for them.

SO THIS IS MY ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA THIS MONDAY MORNING.  I WANT TO STRESS THIS... IT CAN AND WILL CHANGE.  THE MODELS WILL FLIP FLOP LIKE CRAZY UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  REGARDLESS, MOST MAJOR COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE PATTER WITH THE DETAILS STILL TO BE DETERMINED.  I'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED!!!!

Ding Dong The Ridge Is Gone

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

Well, maybe the ridge is not gone, but it's at least moving elsewhere.  More on that in just a little bit.

Wow, what a day Tuesday!  I was watching the live coverage on The Weather Channel as they took KXAS's live feed from Dallas while that tornado ripped through the metroplex.  My jaw was on the floor when I saw those trailers get thrown in the air like they were play toys.  What's really amazing is the fact I haven't heard of 1 fatality.  Give credit to ALL the local media in Dallas and the National Weather Service there.  It's a huge accomplishment to have such a damaging tornado go through a highly populated area and no one dies.  We can't stop the tornadoes, but we can get people to shelter!  That's the goal and job well done to them!!!!!!!!

While we have the threat for severe weather Wednesday, the main threat will be wind and hail across the eastern half of the state.  The tornado threat is low, but remember my golden rule, "never say never to Arkansas weather.".  I'll watch it for you.

Last week we warned about the threat for some rough weather and obviously that has happened.  Now, let's continue to look down the road and see what else Mother Nature will throw our way.  As you read about here first, there's a good chance we'll return to average or even slightly below average temperatures next week as the persistent ridge of high pressure gets relocated to the western United States.  The data continues to support a pattern chance which will bring a trough to the central and eastern United States.  This is a much cooler pattern and I think highs will be 10-20 degrees cooler than they have been.  I think we're past the possibility of a freeze, but overnight lows could get chilly and I wouldn't put those long sleeve shirts away just yet.

This is the Euro valid late next Tuesday indicating a surface area of high pressure moving in from the north.  This would help deliver the a much cooler air mass to the central and eastern United States.

The overnight run of the GFS indicates the front well to the south by late Tuesday with a strong area of high pressure still in southern Canada.  This too would bring a much cooler air mass with highs only in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  I'll keep you updated!!!!